Puszcza Niepołomice vs Polonia Warszawa: match statistics

Puszcza Niepołomice scored 6 goals in the last 5 matches (avg. 1.2 goals per match) and conceded 5 goals (1.0 per match), while Polonia Warszawa has 8 goals (1.6 per match) and 9 conceded (1.8 per match). In their last five fixtures Puszcza's record is 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss, yielding an average of 1.6 points per match, whereas Polonia has 2 wins and 3 losses with no draws and an average of 1.2 points per match. The hosts' key advantage is their defense — Puszcza concedes 1.0 goals per match versus Polonia's 1.8, which, combined with near-parity in attack (1.2 vs 1.6), reduces the visitors' chances. The difference in result stability (Puszcza's two draws vs Polonia's lack of draws) and a superior goal difference over the last 5 matches (+1 for Puszcza vs -1 for Polonia) favor the hosts. Based on this, I tip the home win; suggested probabilities are 47% for Puszcza, 28% for a draw and 25% for a Polonia victory.

In the last 5 matches Puszcza has BTTS at 60% (3/5), and Polonia 80% (4/5), giving an average 70% signal for both teams to score. In those fixtures Puszcza averaged 1.2 goals for and 1.0 against (6 scored, 5 conceded), while Polonia averaged 1.6 for and 1.8 against (8 scored, 9 conceded), so both sides both score and concede. xG in the last 5 matches is 0.98 for Puszcza and 1.92 for Polonia (total 2.9), with conceded xG 1.53 and 1.7 respectively, confirming that both teams create chances and are defensively exposed. Puszcza’s form (dwdwl: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss) is slightly more stable than Polonia’s (lwlwl: 2 wins, 3 losses), but goal numbers and xG strongly support a mutual goal. On this basis I forecast BTTS - Yes at 78% and No at 22%.

In the last 5 matches Puszcza scored 6 goals (avg 1.2) and conceded 5 (1.0), while Polonia scored 8 goals (1.6) and conceded 9 (1.8), giving a combined average of 2.8 goals. xG in the last 5 is 0.98 for Puszcza and 1.92 for Polonia (sum 2.90), with xG against 1.53 and 1.70, hence estimated expected goals are 1.27 for the home side and 1.66 for the away side (total 2.93). Polonia have 80% of matches over 2.5 in the last 5, Puszcza 40%, and BTTS was 80% for Polonia and 60% for Puszcza, which increases the probability of at least three goals. Therefore I assign a high probability for Over 1.5 (92%) and a moderately-high probability for Over 2.5 (72%), while Over 3.5 I assess at 34%; the strongest signal is Over 2.5 given the expected 2.93 goals and the away side’s high Over 2.5 rate.

The most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a home win (X/1): Puszcza were level at half-time in 4 of their last 5 matches (80.0%), strongly favoring a draw at the break. After the interval the hosts perform better — Puszcza average 2.0 points in second halves and win 60.0% of those periods, while Polonia average 1.4 points and only 20.0% second-half wins. In the last five fixtures Puszcza scored 1.2 goals per match versus Polonia’s 1.6, but Polonia conceded 1.8 goals per match compared to 1.0 conceded by Puszcza. Half-time statistics show an average of 1.0 goals for the hosts and 1.8 for the visitors, and Polonia were trailing at half-time in 4 of 5 matches (80.0%), indicating guest instability and the possibility of a turnaround after the break. Therefore I assign the highest single probability to the X/1 scenario (38%), with a total probability of a half-time draw of 65% (X/1 38% + X/X 20% + X/2 7%) and a 7% chance that the hosts will be leading at half-time (1/1 4% + 1/X 2% + 1/2 1%).