Qabala vs Mil Mugan FK: match statistics
Statistical analysis points to very even chances for both teams, which speaks in favor of a draw. Qabala presents poor home form with a 71% loss rate, but has recently improved their disposition, winning 3 of their last 5 matches overall. Mil Mugan FK has a solid away record (44% wins and 44% clean sheets), yet their recent form is very poor – only 0.6 points per game in the last five meetings. A key factor is the hosts' xG advantage (1.24 vs 0.94), but Mil Mugan shows better efficiency (16% vs 9%). Taking into account the poor form of both squads in recent weeks and balanced offensive statistics, a draw appears to be the most probable result, although the hosts hold a slight advantage thanks to playing before their own crowd and better recent form.
Qabala vs Mil Mugan FK: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
Qabala played against Mil Mugan FK in Premyer Liqası (Azerbaijan). The game was played on January 30, 2026. Final score: 3:2.
Recent form
Qabala has 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses over its last five games, averaging 1.20 points per game. Mil Mugan FK has 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses, with 0.40 points per game.
Scoring records
Qabala scores 0.94 goals per game and allows 1.31. Mil Mugan FK scores 0.94 and allows 1.12. Games in this league average 2.53 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 38% of Qabala's games and 29% of Mil Mugan FK's. The Over 2.5 rates are 44% and 35%, compared with league averages of 46% for BTTS and 48% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
Qabala has the higher season xG average, 1.12 to 0.92 per game. Qabala takes 9.3 shots per game, while Mil Mugan FK takes 7.2.
First-half and second-half trends
Qabala leads at halftime in 19% of its games and scores 0.50 goals per game after halftime. Mil Mugan FK leads at halftime in 18% and scores 0.65 after halftime.
When the teams score
Qabala's most productive scoring window is minutes 46-60 (5 goals). For Mil Mugan FK, it is minutes 76-90+ (6 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
Premyer Liqası games average 2.53 goals. Both teams score in 46% of games, and 48% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
Before this game, one previous meeting was available. The record was 0 home wins, 1 draw and 0 away wins. Those games averaged 4.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 100% of them.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Statistical analysis points to very even chances for both teams, which speaks in favor of a draw. Qabala presents poor home form with a 71% loss rate, but has recently improved their disposition, winning 3 of their last 5 matches overall. Mil Mugan FK has a solid away record (44% wins and 44% clean sheets), yet their recent form is very poor – only 0.6 points per game in the last five meetings. A key factor is the hosts' xG advantage (1.24 vs 0.94), but Mil Mugan shows better efficiency (16% vs 9%). Taking into account the poor form of both squads in recent weeks and balanced offensive statistics, a draw appears to be the most probable result, although the hosts hold a slight advantage thanks to playing before their own crowd and better recent form.
View the statistical overviewStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| Qabala | Mil Mugan FK | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 33% | 39% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
Qabala is 200% better for: last-5 form.
1.2 pts / game - Qabala · 0.4 pts / game - Mil Mugan FK
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Mil Mugan FK is 17% better for: goals allowed per game.
1.31 goals / game - Qabala · 1.12 goals / game - Mil Mugan FK
Qabala scores in 50% of games (8 of 16 meczów), while Mil Mugan FK keeps a clean sheet in 35% (6 of 17 meczów).
Mil Mugan FK scores in 53% of games (9 of 17 meczów), while Qabala keeps a clean sheet in 13% (2 of 16 meczów).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Qabala
Over / Under - Mil Mugan FK
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Mil Mugan FK is 18% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1 pts / game - Qabala · 1.18 pts / game - Mil Mugan FK
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Qabala - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 19% of games and wins 19%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Defense stays consistent across the full game.
Mil Mugan FK - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 18% of games and wins 29%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Allows 0.5 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Average goals per game | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | 0 | +2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.4 | 1.2 |
| Average goals per game | 0.6 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 80% | 80% |
| Goal difference | -1 | -5 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (5 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): -4 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (6 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): -3 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
Qabala
Mil Mugan FK
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Premyer Liqası).
Teams vs league
| Qabala | Liga | Mil Mugan FK | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | ▼ 2.25 | 2.53 | ▼ 2.06 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 38% | 46% | ▼ 29% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 44% | 48% | ▼ 35% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 13% | 31% | ▲ 35% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 69% | 66% | ▼ 47% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 69% | 76% | ▲ 82% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Record from Qabala's perspective: 0 wins, 1 draw and 0 losses against Mil Mugan FK. Games average 4.00 goals, and both teams scored in 100% of them.
FAQ
What was the result of Qabala vs Mil Mugan FK?
The Premyer Liqası match finished Qabala 3:2 Mil Mugan FK. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Qabala vs Mil Mugan FK?
Qabala score 0.94 goals per game on average and Mil Mugan FK 0.94. The Premyer Liqası average is 2.53 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 48% of games. Both teams score in 38% of Qabala's matches and 29% of Mil Mugan FK's.
What form are Qabala and Mil Mugan FK in?
Over the last 5 games Qabala have a 2-0-3 record (1.20 points per game) and Mil Mugan FK 0-2-3 (0.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Qabala vs Mil Mugan FK?
The statistical background for Qabala vs Mil Mugan FK — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.