Qabala vs Safa: match statistics

Safa have shown slightly more consistent form in their last five matches, collecting 8 points from 2 wins and 2 draws, while Qabala have earned 7 points. The visitors’ main advantage lies in their defensive record, having conceded just 2 goals in five matches compared with the hosts’ 5. Qabala have scored 6 goals, one more than Safa, but their two defeats during this period indicate a greater vulnerability to poor results. Safa have lost just once in their last five games and occupy a higher league position—7th compared with Qabala’s 11th. The narrow gap in quality and Safa’s two draws in their last five matches increase the likelihood of a draw, but the visitors’ tighter defense points towards a narrow victory for Qabala.

The stronger signal points to BTTS - No, primarily due to Safa’s defensive record: across their last 5 matches, they conceded an average of just 0.4 goals, or 2 goals in total. Only 20% of their last five games saw both teams score, compared with 60% for Qabala, creating a clearly mixed rather than unequivocally goal-oriented matchup. Qabala have recently averaged 1.2 goals per game, but their xG of 1.22 is confronted by a very low xG against Safa of 0.81. Safa do have an attacking xG of 1.60; however, the main risk to BTTS is the hosts failing to score against a well-organized away defense.

Data from the last 5 matches indicates a moderate goals profile: Qabala scored an average of 1.2 goals and conceded 1.0, while Safa averaged 1.0 goal scored and just 0.4 conceded. Safa conceded only 2 goals in 5 matches during this period, which limits the outlook for the hosts despite their average of 1.22 xG. The visitors did create 1.60 xG per match, but this translated into only 5 goals across five appearances, so their advantage in chance quality does not necessarily point to a high-scoring game. Exactly 40% of both teams’ recent matches ended with at least three goals, meaning results with 4 or more goals were less frequent. The combined projection of 2.10 goals provides the strongest signal for Under 3.5 goals.

The strongest signal points to a draw at half-time, as Safa were level after 45 minutes in 60% of their last five matches, compared with 40% for Qabala. The visitors were not trailing at the break in any of those five games, conceding an average of 0.0 goals in the first half and keeping a clean sheet in 100% of cases. Safa’s first halves produced an average of just 0.4 goals, with at least two goals scored in none of their five matches, clearly favouring a cautious opening. The full-time draw remains the most likely outcome, as Safa drew 40% of their recent matches, while both teams recorded a 40% win rate; additionally, the visitors conceded just 0.4 goals per game on average. Qabala have a slightly higher average number of goals scored, 1.2 compared with 1.0, but their 40% loss rate and lack of an advantage in HT results weaken the scenario of the home side leading at the break.