Qingdao Jonoon vs Dalian Zhixing: match statistics

Qingdao Jonoon displays strong home metrics: at home they record a 60% win rate, average 1.8 goals scored and concede 1.2 goals per match, with a +3 home goal differential. In the last 5 matches the hosts scored 10 goals, won 3 games and average 2.0 points per match, while Dalian Zhixing scored only 5 goals in their last 5 and average 1.8 points per match. Qingdao’s main advantage is their home defense — Dalian concedes 2.6 goals on average away and has only 20% clean sheets versus Qingdao’s 40%. In terms of quality of chances the xG figures are similar (Qingdao 1.20 xG at home vs Dalian 1.27 xG away), but the visitors convert that into more goals conceded (2.6 vs 1.2). Considering the hosts’ better conversion (16% vs 14%) and more stable form and goal balance at home, I predict a Qingdao victory.

The advantage for the 'no' scenario stems from Qingdao conceding only 0.8 goals per home match and recording 60% clean sheets this season, meaning opponents failed to score in 60% of their games. Dalian as the away side averages 1.4 goals per game and has a season BTTS rate of 60%, but in the last 5 matches they scored only 5 goals (1.0 per game), which weakens their ability to break down Qingdao's defense. xG analysis confirms the home advantage: Qingdao xG is 1.56 versus 1.27 for Dalian, while xG against Qingdao is 0.98, so the visitors generate fewer expected scoring chances. Considering Qingdao's season BTTS rate of 40% (i.e. 60% no BTTS) and the league average BTTS of 57%, I assign 60% probability to 'no' and 40% to 'yes', backing 'no' as the stronger signal.

Based on xG and attack/defense metrics I estimate a total of 2.76 goals in this match: 1.63 for Qingdao and 1.13 for Dalian (calculated from average attacking xG: Qingdao 1.56, Dalian 1.27 and xG against: Dalian 1.69, Qingdao 0.98). Qingdao averages 1.6 goals scored and concedes 0.8 per game, while Dalian scores 1.4 and concedes as many as 2.6, indicating a clear defensive advantage for the home side. Season percentages show Over 1.5 occurred in 60% of Qingdao’s matches and 80% of Dalian’s, and Over 2.5 in 60% and 80% respectively; the league average is 2.93 goals per game, which supports a goals scenario. Additionally, Dalian records 4.8 shots on target on average and a 14% conversion rate, which combined with their weak defense (2.6 conceded) favors chance creation, while Qingdao has 60% clean sheets at home. As a result I recommend Over 1.5 as the strongest signal: over1.5 88% vs 12%, over2.5 62% vs 38% and over3.5 28% vs 72%.

Qingdao Jonoon holds a clear statistical advantage: an average of 2.4 points per match versus Dalian’s 1.2, a win rate of 80% vs 40%, xG 1.56 vs 1.27, and on average 1.6 goals scored and 0.8 conceded compared to the visitors’ 1.4 scored and 2.6 conceded, giving the hosts a distinct edge. In the first half, seasonally the visitors have a higher average goals at the break (AVGHT 1.6 vs 1.0), but in the last 5 matches Qingdao led at the break in 60% of games and averaged 0.8 goals at HT versus 0.0 for Dalian, so recent form over the last 5 favors the hosts for HT. The second half also favors Qingdao: the hosts score an average of 1.4 goals after the break and practically do not concede (0.0 on average), while Dalian concedes an average of 1.6 after the break; additionally the hosts have 100% second-half win rate in these data vs 20% for the visitors, which suggests maintaining or extending the lead. The visitors have a higher share of matches where both teams score (60% vs 40%), but the high number of clean sheets for Qingdao (60%) and their lower xG conceded (0.98 vs 1.69 for Dalian) reduce the opponents’ chance of an effective turnaround, therefore the most likely scenario is 1/1 (lead at the break and win at Full-Time), with a secondary option worth noting being X/1 (draw at the break and home win).