Queen of the South vs Kelty Hearts: match statistics
Queen of the South displays impressive home form with a 60% win rate and only 20% losses at their own stadium, underpinned by a +8 goal difference at home. The hosts have won 3 of their last 5 matches overall, scoring 9 goals, demonstrating strong offensive capabilities. Conversely, Kelty Hearts is in crisis—sitting in 10th place with just a 30% away win rate and a staggering 50% loss rate, conceding an average of 1.8 goals per away game. The xG statistics also favor the hosts (1.61 vs 0.95), while Kelty has averaged just 0.8 points per game in their last 5 outings. The disparity in quality, particularly given the home advantage and the visitors' poor form, makes a Queen of the South victory the most probable outcome.
Queen of the South vs Kelty Hearts: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
Queen of the South played against Kelty Hearts in League One (Scotland). The game was played on January 10, 2026. Final score: 3:1.
Recent form
Queen of the South has 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss over its last five games, averaging 2.00 points per game. Kelty Hearts has 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses, with 0.80 points per game.
Scoring records
Queen of the South scores 1.35 goals per game and allows 1.20. Kelty Hearts scores 0.95 and allows 2.15. Games in this league average 2.54 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 35% of Queen of the South's games and 55% of Kelty Hearts's. The Over 2.5 rates are 45% and 70%, compared with league averages of 42% for BTTS and 51% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
Queen of the South has the higher season xG average, 1.35 to 0.96 per game. Queen of the South takes 11.1 shots per game, while Kelty Hearts takes 6.8.
First-half and second-half trends
Queen of the South leads at halftime in 40% of its games and scores 0.80 goals per game after halftime. Kelty Hearts leads at halftime in 25% and scores 0.40 after halftime.
When the teams score
Queen of the South's most productive scoring window is minutes 46-60 (7 goals). For Kelty Hearts, it is minutes 16-30 (5 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
League One games average 2.54 goals. Both teams score in 42% of games, and 51% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
Before this game, 2 previous meetings were available. The record was 1 home win, 1 draw and 0 away wins. Those games averaged 2.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 100% of them.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Queen of the South displays impressive home form with a 60% win rate and only 20% losses at their own stadium, underpinned by a +8 goal difference at home. The hosts have won 3 of their last 5 matches overall, scoring 9 goals, demonstrating strong offensive capabilities. Conversely, Kelty Hearts is in crisis—sitting in 10th place with just a 30% away win rate and a staggering 50% loss rate, conceding an average of 1.8 goals per away game. The xG statistics also favor the hosts (1.61 vs 0.95), while Kelty has averaged just 0.8 points per game in their last 5 outings. The disparity in quality, particularly given the home advantage and the visitors' poor form, makes a Queen of the South victory the most probable outcome.
View the statistical overviewStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| Queen of the South | Kelty Hearts | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 41% | 50% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.14 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
Queen of the South is 150% better for: last-5 form.
2 pts / game - Queen of the South · 0.8 pts / game - Kelty Hearts
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Queen of the South is 42% better for: goals scored per game.
1.35 goals / game - Queen of the South · 0.95 goals / game - Kelty Hearts
Queen of the South is 79% better for: goals allowed per game.
1.2 goals / game - Queen of the South · 2.15 goals / game - Kelty Hearts
Queen of the South scores in 70% of games (14 of 20 meczów), while Kelty Hearts keeps a clean sheet in 10% (2 of 20 meczów).
Kelty Hearts scores in 65% of games (13 of 20 meczów), while Queen of the South keeps a clean sheet in 40% (8 of 20 meczów).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Queen of the South
Over / Under - Kelty Hearts
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Queen of the South is 43% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.5 pts / game - Queen of the South · 1.05 pts / game - Kelty Hearts
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Queen of the South - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 40% of games and wins 45%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Allows 0.2 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
Kelty Hearts - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 25% of games and wins 15%. Sometimes gives up a halftime lead.
Allows 0.1 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Average goals per game | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +3 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.8 | 1.6 |
| Average goals per game | 1.4 | 2.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 20% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -1 | -5 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (7 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (5 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): -6 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
Queen of the South
Kelty Hearts
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (League One).
Teams vs league
| Queen of the South | Liga | Kelty Hearts | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | • 2.55 | 2.54 | ▲ 3.10 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 35% | 42% | ▲ 55% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 45% | 51% | ▲ 70% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 40% | 32% | ▼ 10% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 75% | 72% | ▲ 90% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 95% | 80% | ▲ 90% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Record from Queen of the South's perspective: 1 win, 1 draw and 0 losses against Kelty Hearts. Games average 2.50 goals, and both teams scored in 100% of them.
FAQ
What was the result of Queen of the South vs Kelty Hearts?
The League One match finished Queen of the South 3:1 Kelty Hearts. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Queen of the South and Kelty Hearts?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Queen of the South won 1, Kelty Hearts won 0 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 2.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 100% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Queen of the South vs Kelty Hearts?
Queen of the South score 1.35 goals per game on average and Kelty Hearts 0.95. The League One average is 2.54 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 51% of games. Both teams score in 35% of Queen of the South's matches and 55% of Kelty Hearts's.
What form are Queen of the South and Kelty Hearts in?
Over the last 5 games Queen of the South have a 3-1-1 record (2.00 points per game) and Kelty Hearts 1-1-3 (0.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Queen of the South vs Kelty Hearts?
The statistical background for Queen of the South vs Kelty Hearts — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.