Querétaro vs Juárez: match statistics

I back the home win (1). Querétaro averages 1.29 goals scored and concedes 1.21 at home, has a positive home goal difference (+1) and 36% clean-sheet rate at home, while Juárez on the road scores 1.25 on average but concedes as many as 1.75 and has only a 6% clean-sheet rate. The hosts register 10.5 shots per match with 3.71 on target and a 12% conversion rate; Juárez away posts 11 shots and 3.5 on target with an 11% conversion, so the visitors’ offensive edge is marginal. Juárez are in better recent form (1.6 pts in the last 5 matches versus 1.0 for Querétaro) and have scored 8 goals in their last 5 versus 2 for the hosts, but xG indicates balanced chances (1.13 xG for Querétaro vs 1.21 xG for Juárez and roughly 1.58–1.59 xG allowed by both teams). Considering the hosts’ more solid home defense and Juárez’s weaker away record (Juárez win 25% of away matches vs Querétaro’s 43% home win rate), I assess the probabilities as 45% home, 28% draw and 27% away.

The BTTS scenario appears more likely: Querétaro has a season rate of matches with both teams scoring of 76%, and Juárez 81%, versus a league average of 57%. Clean sheets are rare (Querétaro 12%, Juárez 6%), and average goals conceded are 1.59 and 1.75 per match, which increases the likelihood of Goal/Goal. From an xG and shots perspective Querétaro generates xG 1.47 and 4.53 shots on target per game, Juárez has xG 1.21 and 3.5 shots on target, while Juárez concedes xG 1.59 — this indicates chances at both ends. The only weakening signal for BTTS is the home side’s form: in the last 5 matches Querétaro scored just 2 goals (0.4 per game) and had BTTS 20%, whereas Juárez in their last 5 have 8 goals (1.6) and BTTS 100%. Considering the strong seasonal BTTS rates of 76%/81% and the low probability of clean sheet, I assign 75% probability to BTTS - Yes and 25% to No Goal.

xG analysis shows Querétaro with xG_for 1.47 while Juárez concedes xG 1.59, yielding expected home goals ≈1.53; similarly Juárez has xG_for 1.21 and Querétaro concedes 1.12 xG, so away goals ≈1.17, total ≈2.70 goals. Season averages confirm this picture: Querétaro scores 1.76 goals at home, Juárez 1.25 away, and both teams have 88% of matches with over 1.5 goals. Over 2.5 is moderately likely — 71% of home matches and 63% of away matches finish above 2.5, giving an approximate probability ≈67% for >2.5, while over 3.5 occurs in 35% and 38% of cases. High BTTS (76% for Querétaro, 81% for Juárez) and shot counts 13.65 and 11.0 with shots on target 4.53 and 3.5 support a both-teams-to-score scenario. As a result the strongest signal is over 1.5 (high 88%/88% and combined xG ≈2.70), therefore the recommendation is to play the over at the 1.5 line.

The most likely scenario is Querétaro leading at the break and the hosts winning (1/1), as Querétaro led at half-time in 47% of matches and scores an average of 0.88 goals by the break compared to Juárez’s 0.56. The hosts have higher xG (1.47 vs 1.21) and register more on-target shots (4.53 vs 3.5), indicating a greater number of clear chances. After the break Querétaro is also more effective in terms of points – they average 1.71 points in second halves and win the second half in 53% of matches, whereas Juárez average 0.88 points and only win the second half in 13% of matches, so maintaining or increasing the lead is feasible. Additionally, Juárez concede an average of 1.59 xG against and have a lower win share than the hosts (25% vs 41%), which reduces their chances of a turnaround.