Querétaro vs Toluca: match statistics

Toluca has 21 wins, 10 draws and 4 losses this season with a goal tally of 69-31, while Querétaro has 7 wins, 7 draws and 14 losses with a 27-45 record, which clearly indicates the visitors’ superiority. In the last 5 matches Querétaro scored only 3 goals and failed to win any (0-3-2), conceding 8, whereas Toluca scored 11 in five games and sits at 2-2-1, translating to an average of 0.6 points per game for Querétaro versus 1.6 for Toluca. Home stats show Querétaro averages 10.54 shots and 3.54 on target per match with xG 1.12, but concedes 1.31 goals with xG against 1.53; Toluca away averages 15.47 shots and 5.12 on target, xG 1.59 and only 0.71 goals conceded, giving the visitors an edge in chance creation and conversion. Additionally, Toluca have a 53% win rate and 47% clean sheets away, while Querétaro at home have 38% wins and 31% clean sheets, confirming greater defensive stability for the visitors. Considering 69 vs 27 goals scored, higher xG (1.59 vs 1.12) and better recent form (1.6 vs 0.6 points per game), the most likely outcome is a result in favor of Toluca.

Seasonal and recent indicators favor BTTS: Querétaro has 72% home matches with both teams scoring, while Toluca has 80% BTTS in their last 5 games. Querétaro averages 2.39 goals scored at home with xG 1.99 and registers 19.44 shots with 6.39 on target, whereas Toluca concedes only 0.71 goals season-to-date, so the home side typically creates goal-scoring opportunities. However, the visitors have scored 11 goals in their last 5 matches (2.2 per match) with xG 1.99, while Querétaro in the same period managed only 3 goals (0.6), had 40% BTTS and conceded 1.6 per match — this increases the likelihood of Toluca finding the net. Considering the home 72% seasonal BTTS, the visitors’ 80% in-form BTTS and the league average BTTS of 57%, I rate BTTS as more probable: 65% YES vs 35% NO.

xG and offensive balance analysis indicates a high probability of goals: combined offensive xG is 1.99 + 1.59 = 3.58, and after adjusting for opponent defenses (xG against 1.08 for the home side and 1.10 for the away) I estimate 1.55 goals for Querétaro and 1.33 for Toluca, totalling 2.88. Querétaro at home has 89% of matches with over 1.5 goals and 61% with over 2.5 goals, while Toluca away records 53% >1.5 and 41% >2.5, which together boost the chance of at least two goals. A Poisson model with lambda=2.88 yields roughly 78% probability for Over 1.5, about 55% for Over 2.5 and about 32% for Over 3.5, therefore the strongest and safest signal is Over 1.5. Additionally, Querétaro averages 19.44 shots (6.39 on target) versus Toluca’s 15.47 (5.12), and Toluca keeps a clean sheet in 47% of matches, which partially limits BTTS despite Querétaro’s matches having goals from both teams in 72%. For these reasons I recommend betting on Over 1.5 as the most likely and strongest opportunity.

Querétaro has a strong start: they led at the break in 61% of matches (11 times) and score on average 1.22 goals by half-time versus Toluca’s 0.53, which favors the home side leading after 45 minutes. Over the full match the hosts score 2.39 goals on average with xG 1.99 and register 19.44 shots (6.39 on target) versus Toluca’s 15.47 (5.12 on target), indicating Querétaro’s offensive advantage. Nevertheless, Toluca keeps a clean sheet in 47% of matches and concedes just 0.71 goals on average, so a draw or a low final score cannot be ruled out. Given that the hosts lead at the break in 61% of cases and have an overall win rate of 67%, I estimate the highest probability is the scenario of leading at half-time and winning the match (1/1) at about 49%. Therefore I recommend the 1/1 HT/FT as the strongest signal, with smaller chances for a draw after the break (X/X ~8%, X/1 ~10%) or rare turnarounds (e.g., 2/2 ~7%).