Quevilly Rouen vs Paris 13 Atletico: match statistics

Quevilly Rouen has a clear advantage in recent form: they have scored 8 goals in their last 5 matches and average 1.6 points per game over that period, while Paris 13 Atletico have scored only 2 goals and average 0.4 points per game. At home Quevilly averages 2.53 on-target shots from 6.93 total shots with a 13% conversion rate, whereas Paris away average 2.0 on-target from 6.53 shots and a 10% conversion, translating into greater attacking threat from the hosts. Defensively both sides are vulnerable — Quevilly concedes 1.27 goals at home and Paris concedes 1.33 away, with visitors allowing 1.7 xG on the road versus 1.31 xG against Quevilly at home. Historically Quevilly record as many as 53% draws in home matches, which complicates prediction, but the form gap (2 wins in the last 5 for the hosts versus 0 for the visitors) and a 6-goal difference across the last five fixtures favor a Quevilly victory. Therefore I back the home win, although a draw remains a realistic scenario.

Seasonal BTTS rate is 50% for Quevilly Rouen and 47% for Paris 13 Atletico, with a league average of 52%, so overall season form is balanced. Quevilly has xG 1.32 and averages 1.00 goals per match, while Paris 13 has xG 0.91 and averages 0.67 goals; in the last 5 matches the home side scored 8 goals (1.6 per match) and the visitors only 2 (0.4 per match). Paris 13 failed to score in 40% of season matches, whereas Quevilly failed to score in 25% of matches, and the home side kept a clean sheet in 38% of matches, which increases the likelihood of one side being shut out. The gap in chance creation is evident: 3.81 shots on target for Quevilly versus 2.0 for Paris 13 and xG against Paris 13 at 1.70 suggest the hosts dominate offensively while the visitors struggle with finishing. Considering the visitors’ poor attack in the last 5 matches (0.4 goals per match), the low BTTS rate for the hosts in the last 5 (20%), and Paris 13’s 40% matches without a goal, I favor the “No” (No Goal / no BTTS) scenario at 65% versus 35% for “Yes” (BTTS - Yes / Goal/Goal).

I project Quevilly Rouen to score about 1.51 goals and Paris 13 Atletico about 1.12 goals, totaling 2.63 goals. Seasonally Quevilly exceeds 1.5 goals in 63% of matches and Paris in 53% (average ~58%), and in the last 5 matches Quevilly has scored 1.6 goals on average versus 0.4 for Paris, which increases the probability of Over 1.5. xG supports this: xG for Quevilly is 1.32 and xG against Paris is 1.70, which in a simplified model gives 1.51 expected goals for the home side and a total of 2.63, therefore Over 2.5 has a moderate chance (I estimate ~52%). Season-long rates for Over 2.5 are 44% (Quevilly) and 33% (Paris), and for Over 3.5 only 25% and 13%, so Over 3.5 is unlikely. In summary, the strongest signal is Over 1.5, as the projected 2.63 goals together with seasonal and last-5 stats (63%/53% and 1.6 vs 0.4) provide the most reliable support for that line.

A draw at half-time appears most likely: the home side are level at the break in 50% of matches and the visitors in 47%, and the home team scores an average of 0.38 goals by half-time versus 0.13 for the visitors, indicating a low-scoring first half. After the break the home advantage increases — home xG 1.32 versus 0.91 for the visitors and average shots on target 3.81 vs 2.00 suggest Quevilly Rouen creates more chances and is more likely to score a decisive goal. Additionally, over the last five matches the home team average 1.6 goals while the visitors average only 0.4, and the visitors have no wins in their last five (0% wins), which supports a home turnaround after half-time. Considering a 19% probability of the home side leading at the break, 50% HT draws, and the fact that the visitors concede as many as 8 goals in minutes 76–90 compared to 5 scored by the home team, the most reliable HT/FT outcome is draw at half-time and home win at full-time (X/1).