Quevilly Rouen vs Rouen: match statistics

The favorites in this fixture are the visitors, Rouen — they sit 4th and have recorded 13 wins this season versus Quevilly Rouen’s 7, scoring 40 goals compared to the hosts’ 33. Rouen’s away metrics indicate superior offensive creation: on average 10.07 shots and 3.71 on target per match with xG 1.28, while the hosts at home average 6.79 shots and 2.57 on target with xG 0.96. The visitors are also more consistent in scoring (only 14% of matches without a goal vs 36% for the hosts) and look defensively more robust — conceding 1.00 goal per away game versus the hosts’ 1.36 conceded at home, and recording clean sheets in 29% of matches versus 14% for the hosts. On the other hand, Quevilly Rouen have clear recent momentum: 11 goals in their last 5 matches (2.2 per game) and averaging 2 points per match, while Rouen have 5 goals and average 1.2 points in that period. Considering the visitors’ seasonal advantage in chance creation (higher xG 1.28 vs 0.96, more shots) and superior defensive stability, I predict a Rouen win.

I back BTTS - Yes because Rouen has a seasonal BTTS rate of 71% vs Quevilly Rouen’s 53%, both above the league average of 52%, signalling a strong likelihood of both teams scoring. xG data supports this: Quevilly posts xG_for 1.48 against the opponent’s xG_against 1.31, while Rouen has xG_for 1.28 against the home side’s xG_against 0.98 — both sides generate expected chances above the opponent’s defensive values. Quevilly creates more opportunities (12.6 shots and 4.27 on target on average) than Rouen (10.07 and 3.71), but Rouen’s higher conversion rate of 13% vs the home side’s 11% means fewer away shots can still yield a goal. A counterpoint is the home team’s clean sheets in 47% of games and Quevilly’s lower seasonal goals conceded average of 0.73, yet in the last 5 matches the hosts conceded 1.4 goals on average and the away side had BTTS in 60% of their last 5, which shifts the edge back toward both teams scoring. Considering 71% vs 53% seasonal BTTS, mutual xG advantage and recent form, I estimate BTTS probability at 70% for Yes and 30% for No.

The model forecasts a total of 2.53 expected goals: home attack xG 1.48 versus away defense (xG against 1.31) yields ~1.40 for Quevilly Rouen, and away xG 1.28 against home defense (xG against 0.98) yields ~1.13 for Rouen. Seasonal metrics confirm a goal-prone tendency — home side has 60% of matches over 1.5 goals, away 79%, and both teams have 80% and 86% of matches with at least 0.5 goals respectively, hence strong support for Over 1.5 (est. 82%). The 2.5 line is less clear: seasonal Over 2.5 is 47% for home and 43% for away with a league average of 48%, but the home side’s last 5 matches show Over 2.5 in 60% and an average of 2.2 goals scored, giving a slight edge to Over 2.5 (est. 55%). Over 3.5 looks unlikely — seasonal Over 3.5 is only 20%–21% for both teams, and with 2.53 expected goals I estimate the probability of 4+ goals at about 21%, so Under 3.5 is the dominant play at that line.

At half-time the safest outcome is a draw: Quevilly Rouen were level at the break in 53% of matches, and Rouen in 57%, strongly favoring an X at 45 minutes. Nevertheless the hosts’ advantage over 90 minutes is clear — Quevilly win 53% of their home matches, post average xG of 1.48 versus the visitors’ 1.28, and concede on average 0.73 goals per game compared to Rouen’s 1.00. In the last five fixtures the hosts have a 60% win rate while the visitors only 20%, suggesting that Quevilly are more likely to execute a turnaround in the second half. Additionally the hosts keep a clean sheet in 47% of matches versus 29% for the visitors, so the scenario draw at half-time and home win at full-time (X/1) appears to be the strongest signal.