Quilmes vs San Martín San Juan: match statistics

Quilmes have clearly stronger underlying numbers at home: they win 50% of such matches, concede just 0.43 goals per game and keep a clean sheet in 57% of their appearances. The hosts also create more high-quality chances, with an average xG of 1.52 compared with San Martín San Juan’s 1.10 away from home, but their finishing remains limited: they score 1.14 goals at home and fail to score in 43% of matches. The visitors arrive in excellent recent form, having recorded 4 wins and 1 draw in their last five games, scoring 8 goals and conceding only 3. Their away record is less convincing, however — they win 29% of matches, lose 43% and average 0.93 goals — so Quilmes’ strong defensive structure should restrict the visitors’ momentum. The combination of the hosts’ very tight defensive play and San Martín San Juan’s current form points towards an even, relatively low-scoring draw.

Although both teams record BTTS fairly often over the course of the season—62% for Quilmes and 57% for San Martín San Juan—current form clearly weakens this signal. In their last 5 matches, Quilmes have scored only 4 goals, averaging 0.8 per game, while BTTS occurred in just 20% of those matches. San Martín San Juan are on a better run, but they have conceded only 3 goals in their last five appearances, an average of 0.6, with an xG against of 0.96. In addition, the visitors average only 2.85 shots on target per match and score 0.93 goals per game over the season, which limits their chances of finding a goal in response. The league has a BTTS rate of just 40% and averages 1.94 goals per match, making the outcome in which at least one team fails to score more likely. In other words, BTTS - No is favored; this does not automatically mean a 0:0 draw, only that at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.

The strongest signal is for Under 3.5 goals, as only 15% of Quilmes matches and none of San Martín San Juan’s matches have gone over this line this season. Both teams also regularly stay below 2.5 goals: this applies to 62% and 64% of their matches, respectively, with the league average standing at just 1.94 goals per game. Quilmes have scored only 0.8 goals per game across their last five appearances, while San Martín, despite averaging 1.6 goals during this period, have conceded just 0.6. The chance-quality model projects approximately 1.05 expected goals for the hosts and 1.13 for the visitors, or 2.18 in total—well below the four-goal threshold. In addition, the hosts concede 0.85 goals per match on a season-long basis, further limiting the chances of an open, high-scoring game.

Quilmes have a very strong first-half profile at home: they were leading at the break in 9 of 13 matches, or 69%, while conceding only 0.08 goals before half-time. San Martín San Juan have taken a half-time lead in just 14% of their away matches, averaging 0.36 goals scored and 0.43 conceded in the opening 45 minutes. The hosts have also been superior over the season as a whole, scoring 1.38 goals per match and conceding 0.85, compared with 0.93 and 1.07 respectively for the visitors; the advantage is also reflected in xG, at 1.57 versus 1.10. Recent form does favor San Martín, who have won 4 of their last 5 matches, so the draw-at-half-time and away-win scenarios retain a significant share. However, the strongest individual outcome remains Quilmes leading at the break and going on to win, supported by the hosts’ 54% win rate and San Martín’s season win rate of just 29%.