Racing vs Cerro Largo: match statistics
Racing vs Cerro Largo: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
Racing played against Cerro Largo in Primera División (Uruguay). The game was played on May 17, 2026. Venue: Parque Osvaldo Roberto. Final score: 1:0.
Recent form
Racing has 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss over its last five games, averaging 1.60 points per game. Cerro Largo has 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses, with 0.80 points per game.
Scoring records
Racing scores 1.53 goals per game and allows 0.93. Cerro Largo scores 1.07 and allows 1.27. Games in this league average 2.53 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 60% of Racing's games and 40% of Cerro Largo's. The Over 2.5 rates are 40% and 40%, compared with league averages of 54% for BTTS and 49% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
Racing has the higher season xG average, 1.60 to 1.27 per game. Racing takes 13.0 shots per game, while Cerro Largo takes 10.2.
First-half and second-half trends
Racing leads at halftime in 40% of its games and scores 0.80 goals per game after halftime. Cerro Largo leads at halftime in 33% and scores 0.67 after halftime.
When the teams score
Racing's most productive scoring window is minutes 76-90+ (6 goals). For Cerro Largo, it is minutes 76-90+ (6 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
Primera División games average 2.53 goals. Both teams score in 54% of games, and 49% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
Before this game, 3 previous meetings were available. The record was 1 home win, 2 draws and 0 away wins. Those games averaged 2.33 goals, with both teams scoring in 67% of them.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I back Racing to win because at home they average 1.63 goals per match, register 5 shots on target from 13.13 attempts and have a 12% conversion rate, with home xG for of 1.63. Cerro Largo away scores only 0.88 goals per game, records 4 shots on target from 10.88 attempts and an 8% conversion, and failed to score in 50% of their away matches. Defensively, Racing concedes 1.0 goal at home on average with xG against 1.08 and a positive home goal difference of +5, whereas the visitors concede 1.25 goals on average away, have a negative away goal difference of -3 and xG against 1.71, suggesting more clear-cut chances created against them. In the last 5 matches Racing averages 1.6 points (2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss) while Cerro Largo averages only 0.8 points (1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses), confirming the home side’s form advantage. Considering superior finishing, higher shot volume and more favorable xG metrics for the hosts, I assess Racing’s win probability at 65%, draw 20% and away win 15%.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Statistical analysis indicates a mildly positive signal for BTTS - Yes: the league BTTS rate is 54%, Racing has 57% BTTS at home, while Cerro Largo has only 25% BTTS away. Racing concedes an average of 1.29 goals at home and keeps a clean sheet in just 14% of matches (meaning the home side concedes in 86% of games), whereas Cerro Largo scores an average of 0.88 goals on the road and fails to score in 50% of away matches, which weakens the probability of Goal/Goal. xG shows both sides create chances: Cerro Largo has average xG 1.34, while Racing allows opponents an average of 1.57 xG; conversely Racing has xG 1.19 and Cerro Largo concedes 1.71 xG on average, so statistically both teams register opportunities. Cerro Largo averages 10.88 shots and 4.0 on target with a conversion rate of 8%, while Racing averages 9.43 shots and 2.71 on target with a 14% conversion, indicating the visitors create more chances but are less clinical. Considering Racing’s high BTTS level (57%) and the league average 54%, but also Cerro Largo’s 50% rate of being shut out away, I forecast BTTS - Yes at 60% and No Goal at 40% as the most likely outcome.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
xG analysis and recent form yield a combined expected goals total of about 2.77: home ~1.68 (last 5 matches attacking xG 1.56 vs. away defense average xG conceded 1.80) and away ~1.09 (last 5 attacking xG 1.18 vs. home defense 0.99). A Poisson distribution at this total gives probability of ≥2 goals (Over 1.5) ≈76%, ≥3 goals (Over 2.5) ≈52% and ≥4 goals (Over 3.5) ≈30%. This aligns with season metrics: Racing has 71% of matches with over 1.5 goals, Cerro Largo 50%, while Over 2.5 stands at 43% for Racing and 38% for the visitors; additionally Racing scores 1.29 goals seasonally with a shot conversion rate of 14% versus 0.88 and 8% for the visitors, which increases the hosts’ chance to score. The last 5 rounds however show a lower goal tempo (Racing 5 goals in 5 matches, Cerro 4 goals), so Over 2.5 is only marginally favored (~52%), whereas Over 1.5 provides a larger safety margin (~76%). Therefore I recommend a bet on Over 1.5 (the "over" side, line 1.5) as the strongest signal from the data due to higher expected xG and better home conversion.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The strongest signal indicates a Half-Time/Full-Time X/2: the away side won 38% of matches versus 29% for the home side, they have a higher xG (1.34 vs 1.19) and more shots (10.88 vs 9.43) and more shots on target (4.0 vs 2.71), suggesting superiority in chance creation. The away team were drawing at the break in 50% of their games (drawingAtHTPercentage_away=50), and over the last 5 matches they averaged 1.4 second-half goals (last5_AVG_2hg_overall_away=1.4) with at least one goal occurring in 80% of those games (last5_over05_2hg_percentage_overall_away=80), which favors a turnaround after the break. The home team tend to score more late goals (4 goals in minutes 76–90 vs 2 for the away team), meaning their strikes often come late and less frequently decide the result before half-time. Additionally, the home side has a higher shot conversion rate (14% vs 8% for the away team), but the lower number of chances (2.71 shots on target vs 4.0) reduces the probability of holding a lead for the full 90 minutes. Therefore the most likely scenario is X/2 (~30%), with X/X (~20%) and 2/2 (~15%) as the main alternatives.
View first-half and second-half statisticsStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| Racing | Cerro Largo | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 34% | 33% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
Racing is 100% better for: last-5 form.
1.6 pts / game - Racing · 0.8 pts / game - Cerro Largo
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Racing is 43% better for: goals scored per game.
1.53 goals / game - Racing · 1.07 goals / game - Cerro Largo
Racing is 37% better for: goals allowed per game.
0.93 goals / game - Racing · 1.27 goals / game - Cerro Largo
Racing scores in 93% of games (14 of 15 meczów), while Cerro Largo keeps a clean sheet in 20% (3 of 15 meczów).
Cerro Largo scores in 60% of games (9 of 15 meczów), while Racing keeps a clean sheet in 33% (5 of 15 meczów).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Racing
Over / Under - Cerro Largo
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Racing is 26% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.67 pts / game - Racing · 1.33 pts / game - Cerro Largo
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Racing - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 40% of games and wins 60%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Defense stays consistent across the full game.
Cerro Largo - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 33% of games and wins 33%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Allows 0.3 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Average goals per game | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 80% |
| Goal difference | +1 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.2 | 1.0 |
| Average goals per game | 0.6 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +1 | -3 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (6 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (6 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
Racing
Cerro Largo
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Primera División).
Teams vs league
| Racing | Liga | Cerro Largo | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | • 2.47 | 2.53 | ▼ 2.33 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 60% | 54% | ▼ 40% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 40% | 49% | ▼ 40% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 33% | 25% | ▼ 20% |
| Goal before half-time | • 73% | 73% | • 73% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 73% | 77% | ▲ 87% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Record from Racing's perspective: 1 win, 2 draws and 0 losses against Cerro Largo. Games average 2.33 goals, and both teams scored in 67% of them.
FAQ
What was the result of Racing vs Cerro Largo?
The Primera División match finished Racing 1:0 Cerro Largo. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Racing and Cerro Largo?
In the last 3 head-to-head matches Racing won 1, Cerro Largo won 0 and 2 ended level. These games averaged 2.33 goals, with both teams scoring in 67% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Racing vs Cerro Largo?
Racing score 1.53 goals per game on average and Cerro Largo 1.07. The Primera División average is 2.53 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 49% of games. Both teams score in 60% of Racing's matches and 40% of Cerro Largo's.
What form are Racing and Cerro Largo in?
Over the last 5 games Racing have a 2-2-1 record (1.60 points per game) and Cerro Largo 1-1-3 (0.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Racing vs Cerro Largo?
The statistical background for Racing vs Cerro Largo — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.