Radnik Surdulica vs Mačva Šabac: match statistics

Radnik Surdulica has clear grounds to capitalize on home advantage, averaging 68% possession, 23 shots, and 2.55 xG per match. Mačva Šabac are yet to score away from home, manage just 1.5 shots on target, and generate only 0.72 xG. The visitors’ defense looks particularly vulnerable, conceding an average of 3.5 goals away from home while allowing opponents 2.40 xG, and they have lost both of their away fixtures so far. The hosts are also yet to win a match, but they have drawn all of their home games to date and average a goal per match, so their superiority in chance creation should finally translate into all three points. The risk of a draw remains significant given Radnik’s winless run, but Mačva’s extremely ineffective attack points toward a home victory.

The strongest signal is Mačva Šabac’s very poor finishing: the team has failed to score on average both across the season and in its last 5 matches, while its xG stands at only 0.72 for the season and 0.95 over the recent period. The visitors have failed to score in 100% of their seasonal matches, while BTTS has occurred in just 0% of their games, clearly supporting the scenario that at least one team will remain scoreless. Radnik has also been unimpressive offensively, averaging 0.4 goals in its last five appearances, despite its current xG rising to 1.58. However, the hosts have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their matches this season, and Mačva averages only 1.5 shots on target per game, so their chances of breaking through are limited. The latest BTTS indicators—40% for Radnik and 20% for Mačva—are also below the threshold suggesting a Goal/Goal outcome for both teams.

Radnik should create the most chances, as its average xG over the last five matches stands at 1.58, while Mačva allowed 2.01 xG per game during this period. The visitors’ defense also conceded 12 goals in their last five appearances, averaging 2.4 per match, while the hosts scored an average of 1.0 goal at home. Mačva has very limited attacking potential: its average xG is 0.72, and it failed to score in two away matches, although Radnik concedes an average of 1.5 goals on home soil. Both teams had Over 2.5 goals in 40% of their matches over the last five games, so the 2.5 line remains too evenly balanced. The strongest signal comes from Over 1.5 goals, supported by a projected total of 2.35 goals and Mačva’s clear defensive weakness.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Radnik victory at the final whistle, as the hosts were level at the break in 4 of their last 5 matches, while Mačva were trailing at half-time in 3 of their last 5 games. Across these five appearances, Radnik failed to score before the break and conceded an average of just 0.4 goals, which clearly increases the likelihood of a cautious start. After the interval, Mačva remain highly vulnerable defensively: over the season, they have conceded an average of 2.0 goals away from home, including 1.4 in the second half across their last five matches. The hosts also have the higher attacking xG, 1.06 compared with the opponents’ 0.72, while Mačva have lost 80% of their last five games. Therefore, Radnik’s superiority should become most evident in the closing stages.