Radnik Surdulica vs Novi Pazar: match statistics

Radnik Surdulica holds a statistical home advantage: the hosts score 1.53 goals per home match with xG 1.79, while Novi Pazar average just 1.13 goals away with xG 1.50. Radnik generates more shots (14.6 vs 12.8) and more shots on target (4.8 vs 3.8), and their share of matches without scoring is only 13% compared to 47% for the visitors. In the last 5 fixtures Radnik has scored 7 goals and recorded a 1-3-1 record (1.2 points per match), whereas Novi Pazar have only 4 goals and sit on 0-2-3 (0.4 points per match), conceding 11 goals in that span. Additionally, Radnik’s home defense concedes 1.07 goals per game with 40% clean sheets, versus 1.27 conceded and 33% clean sheets for Novi Pazar on the road, leading me to predict a home win.

I tip BTTS - Yes with a 65% vs 35% probability because Radnik has a season BTTS of 63% and 80% in the last 5 matches, while Novi Pazar, despite a 33% season rate, reaches 60% in the last 5, yielding a combined signal favoring both teams to score. Both teams concede over 1 goal per game (Radnik 1.44, Novi Pazar 1.27), and the away side has conceded 11 goals in the last 5 matches (2.2 per game), which significantly increases the chance of the hosts scoring. Radnik creates more quality chances: season xG for the hosts is 1.81 versus the xG conceded by the visitors of 1.64, and average shots on target are 5.88 vs 3.8, supporting an expected home goal. Novi Pazar have scored only 4 goals in the last 5 matches, however their last5 xG_for is 1.86, so the visitors also have the potential to score despite a low seasonal scoring average of 1.13. Clean sheets occur in only 38% and 33% of matches, and the league average BTTS is 54%, therefore the 'Yes' scenario is stronger and better justified.

Based on xG I expect about 1.73 goals for Radnik (attacking xG 1.81 and opposition defense xG conceded 1.64 on average) and about 1.43 for Novi Pazar (attacking xG 1.50 and opposition defense xG conceded 1.36), totalling ~3.16 expected goals. A Poisson model with λ=3.16 yields ~82% probability for Over 1.5 goals (at least 2), ~61% for Over 2.5 goals (at least 3) and ~39% for Over 3.5 goals (at least 4). Seasonal data supports this direction: Radnik has 75% of matches Over 1.5 and scores on average 1.38 goals with 13.94 shots and 5.88 on target, while Novi Pazar has 73% of such matches and averages 1.13 goals with 3.8 on target. In the last 5 matches Radnik scored 7 and conceded 6, and Novi Pazar scored 4 and conceded 11, indicating greater defensive issues for the visitors and increasing the likelihood of more goals. Therefore the strongest signal from the data is Over 1.5 (over) — it has the highest numerical backing (~82% per xG/Poisson) and is corroborated by the seasonal Over 1.5 participation for both teams.

Radnik has a clear advantage in the final result: as the home side they win 50% of matches versus 33% of away wins for Novi Pazar, and average xG is 1.81 for Radnik vs 1.50 for Novi Pazar. At Half-Time the most common score is a draw — the hosts have a HT draw in 44% of matches and score an average of 0.81 goals by the break, while Novi Pazar scores 0.47; Radnik have 25 HT goals compared to 14 for the visitors. Radnik registers more shots on target (5.88 vs 3.80) and concedes lower xG against (1.36 vs 1.64), which suggests they will dominate the second half and convert some HT draws into Full-Time wins. Novi Pazar are behind at the break in 40% of matches, which further increases the likelihood that an HT draw will end as a home victory, so the strongest signal is X/1.