Radnik Surdulica vs Vojvodina: match statistics

I predict an away win (Vojvodina). Vojvodina sit 2nd with 19 wins and 56 goals this season versus Radnik’s 11 wins and 42 goals, giving them a clear advantage in output (19 vs 11 wins, 56 vs 42 goals). The visitors are in better recent form: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss and an average of 1.6 points per game in the last 5, while Radnik has 1 win, 3 draws, 1 loss and 1.2 points per game. Radnik do have home strengths — averaging 1.56 goals per game, xG 1.77, 14.63 shots per game and only 13% of matches without a goal, while Vojvodina away record shows 1.31 goals, xG 1.48 and as many as 31% of matches without scoring. Defensively over the season Vojvodina look better (33 conceded vs Radnik’s 38), but in the last 5 the visitors have conceded 7 goals versus Radnik’s 5, so I expect a balanced contest with a slight edge to Vojvodina.

Statistics point to a higher likelihood of BTTS - Yes: combined xG is 3.31 (Radnik 1.83, Vojvodina 1.48), indicating strong goal potential. Radnik averages 2.06 goals per match from 15.47 shots and 5.65 on target, while Vojvodina averages 1.31 goals from 12.25 shots and 4.5 on target; together this produces sufficient chances. In the last 5 matches both teams registered BTTS in 60% of games, each scoring 6 goals in that span (≈1.2 per game) while conceding 5 (Radnik) and 7 (Vojvodina), confirming both sides have been finding the net recently. Counterpoints are seasonal BTTS rates of 47% and 44% and relatively high clean sheet rates of 47% (Radnik) and 38% (Vojvodina) and a league clean sheet rate of 57%, which reduce confidence. Considering the combined xG of 3.31, shooting activity and recent 60% BTTS for both teams, I favor the 'Yes' scenario and estimate BTTS probability at 62% vs 38% for 'No'.

I estimate home expected goals at 1.70 (home average xG 1.83 vs Vojvodina away xG conceded 1.56) and away expected goals at 1.29 (away xG 1.48 vs home xG conceded 1.09), yielding a total of 2.99 expected goals. With a mean of 2.99 the probability of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5) is about 80%, consistent with seasonal rates: Radnik at home has 82% of matches Over 1.5, Vojvodina away 56%. I assess the probability of 3+ goals (Over 2.5) at roughly 58% — supported by seasonal Over 2.5 rates: 59% for the home side and 44% for the visitors — while Over 3.5 is less likely (~35%), matching seasonal 47%/31%. Additionally, Radnik averages 15.47 shots and 5.65 shots on target with a 13% conversion, and Vojvodina 12.25 shots and 4.5 shots on target with an 11% conversion, which increases the chance of at least two goals in the match. Based on this I recommend Over 1.5 as the strongest signal: the high expected total of 2.99 combined with home xG 1.83 versus away xG conceded 1.56 gives the Over side an edge at the 1.5 line.

Radnik holds a clear advantage in the first half: the hosts average 0.65 goals by half-time versus 0.44 for Vojvodina and lead at the break in 35% of matches (the visitors only 19%). Additionally, Radnik posts a higher xG of 1.83 versus 1.48 and averages 15.47 shots and 5.65 on target per match, while Vojvodina records 12.25 shots and 4.5 on target; the hosts’ shot conversion is 13% versus the visitors’ 11%, which increases the likelihood of maintaining a lead. In the second half Radnik is even more dangerous — they score an average of 1.41 goals after the break compared to 0.88 for their opponents, and 12 of their goals occur in minutes 76–90 versus 4 for Vojvodina, favoring a late closure of the result. Considering that the hosts lead at the break in 35% of matches and win 59% of games over the season, the 1/1 (lead at half-time and win at full-time) scenario is the strongest — therefore I assign it 26%, with the next-strongest being X/1 at 21%. Additionally, the very low BTTS figure in the first half (6% for both teams) reduces the probability of both teams scoring before half-time, which weakens the 1/2 and 2/1 scenarios.