Radomiak Radom vs Lechia Gdańsk: match statistics

Radomiak Radom has a clear advantage in home metrics: they score on average 1.93 goals at home and concede only 0.93 per match, with a home goal difference of +15 and a 53% home win rate. Lechia Gdańsk averages 1.57 goals away but concedes as many as 2.21 goals per away match, records 0% clean sheets and suffers 50% away losses, indicating significant defensive issues on the road. Quality-of-chances indicators also favor Radomiak: home xG for the hosts is 1.68 versus away xG for the visitors of 1.56; the hosts generate more shots (15.6 vs 12.79) and slightly more shots on target (4.8 vs 4.71), with identical conversion rate of 12%. Recent form over the last 5 matches is similar (1.4 points on average each), Lechia scored 8 goals in the last 5 matches compared to Radomiak’s 5, but also conceded 7 versus 6, which neutralizes their offensive edge. Considering the hosts’ superior defense, Radomiak’s much lower percentage of goalless matches (13% vs 29%) and the advantage in xG and shot volume, the home win is the favored outcome.

Both teams show high BTTS rates this season: Radomiak 75% and Lechia 71%, versus a league average of 57%, which is already a strong signal for BTTS - Yes. In the last 5 matches these rates are 60% (Radomiak) and 80% (Lechia); over that period Lechia averaged 1.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, while Radomiak averaged 1.0 scored and 1.2 conceded. Radomiak generates xG 1.80 per match and Lechia concedes xG 1.79; simultaneously Lechia creates xG 1.56 and Radomiak concedes xG 1.43, so both sides present realistic chances of scoring. Additionally, Radomiak records 6.13 shots on target per match versus Lechia's 4.71 and has a higher conversion rate 15% vs 12%, while Lechia has 0% clean sheets this season (Radomiak 19%), which increases the probability of a Goal/Goal outcome. On this basis I assign a 77% probability to BTTS - Yes and 23% to No, because the seasonal 75%/71%, short-term 60%/80% and the xG and goal averages (2.19 vs 2.21) clearly favor both teams scoring.

Based on xG and available statistics, I project Radomiak to score about 1.80 goals (home xG 1.80 vs opposition xG against Lechia 1.79) and Lechia about 1.50 goals (away xG 1.56 vs opposition xG against Radomiak 1.43), yielding a total of ~3.30 goals. Both teams display very high season-over-1.5 rates: Radomiak 94% and Lechia 93%, while the percentage of matches in which both teams scored is 75% for the home side and 71% for the away side, which strongly supports Over 1.5. Season Over 2.5 rates are 63% for Radomiak and 79% for Lechia (average ~71%), and additionally the hosts average 14.69 shots and 6.13 on target; combined with the total xG of 3.3 this provides a moderately strong signal for Over 2.5. The 3.5 line is less certain – Over 3.5 occurs in 31% of Radomiak’s matches and 50% of Lechia’s (average ~41%) – therefore the clearest and strongest selection from the data is Over 1.5.

Seasonal statistics favor Radomiak: the hosts average 2.19 goals per match and 1.75 points per match, while Lechia scores 1.57 goals and has 1.07 points; the hosts’ xG is 1.80 versus 1.56 for the visitors. At Half-Time Radomiak averages 1.06 goals and led in 8 matches (50%), while Lechia has 0.64 HT goals and led in 3 matches (21%); the hosts concede an average of 0.63 goals by Half-Time compared to 1.07 conceded by Lechia. Both teams, however, frequently both score (BTTS 75% for Radomiak and 71% for Lechia) and most goals come in the second half (the hosts score >0.5 second-half goals in 94% of matches), which increases the chance of turnarounds after the break. In the last five matches Radomiak were trailing at Half-Time in 3 of 5 games (60%), and Lechia led at Half-Time in 1 of 5 (20%), so the risk of an HT draw or a turnaround must be considered. Overall, taking into account the home advantage (50% HT leads for Radomiak, superior xG 1.80 vs 1.56 and 1.75 pts/match), the strongest signal is a Half-Time/Full-Time lead at the break and home win after 90 minutes (1/1).