Radomlje vs Brinje-Grosuplje: match statistics

I predict a win for Brinje-Grosuplje (2): the visitors occupy 3rd place in the table versus Radomlje’s 10th and have a superior run over the last 5 matches (4 wins and 1 loss vs. the hosts’ 3 wins and 2 losses). In their last five matches Radomlje scored 10 and conceded 9 (avg. 2.0 scored and 1.8 conceded per match), while Brinje-Grosuplje scored 9 and conceded only 3 (avg. 1.8 scored and 0.6 conceded per match), which clearly indicates a defensive advantage for the away side. The average points gained in the last 5 matches are 2.4 for Brinje-Grosuplje and 1.8 for Radomlje, so the visitors convert form into points more effectively. Detailed shot and xG data for the season are lacking, but the available figures (fewer goals conceded and a higher league position) favor the visitors; therefore I assign them a 60% chance to win, 20% for a draw and 20% for a home win.

The home team have BTTS in 100% of their last 5 matches; in those games they scored 10 and conceded 9, averaging 2.0 goals scored and 1.8 goals conceded per match. The away team have BTTS in 40% of their last 5 matches; during that period they scored 9 and conceded 3, averaging 1.8 goals scored and 0.6 goals conceded per match. xG metrics show the home team with xG 1.17 and xG against 2.06, while the visitors have xG 1.44 and xG against 0.97, suggesting greater defensive vulnerability for the home side. Given the home matches have been high-scoring (19 goals in 5 matches, 3.8 goals/match average), and the away side can generate 1.44 xG and score 1.8 goals on average, a both teams to score scenario appears more likely. I assign 70% probability to BTTS - Yes and 30% to No, basing the decision on the home side’s 100% BTTS versus the away side’s 40% and the comparison of xG and goals averages.

In the last 5 matches Radomlje averages 2.0 goals scored and concedes 1.8 (10 scored, 9 conceded), while Brinje‑Grosuplje averages 1.8 goals scored and concedes 0.6 (9 scored, 3 conceded). The xG from these 5 games is 1.17 for the home side and 1.44 for the away side, with xG against of 2.06 (Radomlje) and 0.97 (Brinje), which when averaged yields a forecast of 1.07 goals for Radomlje and 1.75 for Brinje‑Grosuplje, a total of 2.82 goals. Additionally, 100% of Radomlje’s last 5 matches finished Over 2.5 goals, and Brinje‑Grosuplje has 60% of such matches, confirming both teams’ propensity for high-scoring games. Based on this, the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (very high confidence), while Over 2.5 also holds an edge given the expected 2.82 goals.

Analysis of the last 5 matches shows an edge for the away side: they won 4 of 5 fixtures (80%) and average 2.4 points per match versus the home side, who won 3 of 5 (60%) and average 1.8 points per match. At Half-Time the visitors score on average 1.2 goals and concede 0.0, leading at the break in 3 of 5 matches (60%), whereas the home team scores 1.0 goals at Half-Time and concedes 0.6, also leading in 3 of 5 (60%) but trailing at the break once (20%). Over the Full-Time result the home team averages 2.0 goals scored and 1.8 conceded, while the visitors average 1.8 scored and only 0.6 conceded, which clearly indicates the visitors have the superior defense. The strongest scenario is the visitors taking the lead at the break and holding on to win (HT/FT 2/2) — I assign this outcome a 34% probability. As alternatives I consider a Half-Time draw and an away win (HT/FT X/2 20%) and the home team leading and winning (HT/FT 1/1 12%), but the first-half statistics and the low number of goals conceded by the visitors favor the 2/2 scenario.