Radomlje vs Maribor: match statistics

Maribor lead the table and remain unbeaten after 8 matches of the season, with a record of 4 wins and 4 draws, while Radomlje have won just 1 of their 7 games. The visitors are also in significantly better form: they have collected 11 points from their last five matches, remain unbeaten and have scored 15 goals, whereas Radomlje have taken 7 points in that period. Away from home, Maribor average 1.25 goals scored and 1.00 conceded, while the hosts score just 0.50 goals per home game, have not won any match and have lost 75% of their fixtures. Radomlje do create chances worth an average xG of 1.73 compared with Maribor’s 1.66, but convert just 4% of their shots, compared with the visitors’ 9% conversion rate. Maribor’s high away draw rate of 75% increases the risk of a share of the points, but the advantage in quality, current form and defensive solidity points to the visitors.

The BTTS signal is further strengthened by current form: over their last 5 matches, both teams averaged 3.2 and 3.0 goals respectively, while both teams scored in 60% and 80% of those games. During this period, Radomlje conceded 1.4 goals per match, with an xG against of 1.67, giving Maribor a solid basis for finding the net. Maribor have also been consistent in attack, recording an xG of 1.83 in their last five appearances and averaging 13.75 shots across the season. The hosts have not recorded a single league match without scoring, while their average of 2.25 goals per game and 4.75 shots on target support the expectation of an attacking response. Although Radomlje have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their matches this season, the combination of both teams' strong scoring form and Maribor's 75% BTTS rate points to the more likely BTTS - Yes outcome.

The model expects 2.60 goals: Radomlje averages 1.52 xG created, while Maribor averages 1.66 xG, although both defenses have relatively strong xG-against figures, at 0.92 and 1.17 respectively. At home, the hosts score an average of 2.25 goals and concede just 0.50, while Maribor scores 1.25 goals away from home and concedes 1.00. Recent form increases the risk of an open game, as Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% and 60% of the last five matches for the two teams, respectively. Despite this, the 3.5 line is the safest option: in the competition, both teams have finished below it in 75% of matches, and neither has scored or conceded more than 3 goals in a single game. The value therefore remains on Under 3.5 goals, while a result in the region of 2-3 total goals remains a realistic scenario.

Radomlje have posted very strong home numbers throughout the season: they average 2.25 goals scored, concede just 0.50, and have won 75% of their matches, so HT/FT scenarios involving a home win remain relevant. However, current form more clearly favors Maribor, who are unbeaten in their last five matches, recording three wins and averaging 3.0 goals scored while conceding only 1.0. A draw at half-time is a realistic possibility, as both teams have drawn at the break in 25% of their matches this season, while Radomlje have done so in 50% of their last five games. After the interval, the visitors’ advantage grows: Maribor have recently averaged 1.8 goals scored in the second half and conceded just 0.2, whereas Radomlje average 0.75 goals scored and allow opponents 1.0. The most likely scenario is therefore a balanced opening, followed by a result in Maribor’s favor.