Raja Casablanca vs Hassania Agadir: match statistics

Raja Casablanca is the favorite in this match: they sit 3rd in the table with 35 goals scored and 19 conceded, while Hassania Agadir are 12th with 26 scored and 36 conceded. At home Raja average 1.29 goals scored and only 0.43 conceded per match, and their home xG is 1.57 versus the visitors’ away xG of 1.02. Statistically the hosts dominate possession (62% vs 45%), attempt more shots (12.64 vs 7.5) and register more shots on target (4.57 vs 3.14), which partly offsets the opponents’ slightly higher conversion rate (12% vs 10%). Additionally Raja keep a clean sheet in 57% of home games and have a home loss rate of just 14%, while Hassania lose 50% of away matches and keep only 29% clean sheets. Despite comparable form over the last 5 games (both teams averaging 1.6 points per game with 2 wins), the hosts’ statistical superiority in attack and defense leads me to predict a Raja victory.

The xG-based model (expected goals: Raja ≈1.21, Hassania ≈1.13 — calculated as the average of offensive xG and xG against the opponent) estimates BTTS probability at ~48%. Season-long BTTS rates are 43% for Raja and 50% for Hassania (average 46.5%), while the league average BTTS is 52%, indicating a moderate tendency toward BTTS, slightly below the league norm. Recent form over the last 5 matches is mixed: Raja has BTTS 100% and averages 1.8 scored and 1.6 conceded in those games, whereas Hassania has BTTS 40% with recent averages of 0.8 scored and 0.6 conceded; this implies Raja frequently creates chances and concedes goals, while Hassania scores less but has defended better recently. Additionally, shot and xG metrics are similar (xG_for 1.18 vs 1.02, shots on target 3.14 vs 3.14), so both teams should have opportunities but neither clearly dominates. Weighing xG (~48%), season BTTS (~46.5%) and last 5 matches (average 70% from averaging 100% and 40%), I ultimately assign 54% to BTTS - Yes and 46% to No Goal — recommendation: BTTS - Yes.

Based on xG: the home side has xG_for 1.18 while opponents’ xG_against is 1.25, implying an expected ~1.21 goals for Raja; the visitors have xG_for 1.02 against the home xG_against 1.24, implying ~1.13 goals, totalling ≈2.34 goals. Seasonally both teams have a high percentage of matches over 1.5 goals — Raja 64% and Hassania 71% (avg ~68%) — this is a strong argument for Over 1.5. The 2.5 line is less convincing: seasonal Over2.5 is 36% for Raja and 57% for Hassania (avg ~46%), and the last 5 matches show Raja scoring 1.8 goals on average while Hassania 0.8, which is not enough to clearly back Over 2.5. Over 3.5 appears unlikely (seasonally 7% for Raja and 21% for Hassania, avg ~14%), so the best and strongest signal from the data is to play Over 1.5.

The most likely scenario is Raja Casablanca leading at half-time and the hosts winning (1/1), because in the last five matches Raja led at the break in 2 of 5 (40%) and scored 8 first-half goals compared to Hassania’s 1 in those five games (averaging 1.0 vs 0.2). Over the season the home side averages 0.57 goals by half-time versus 0.29 for the visitors, with seasonal win rates of 36% for Raja and 21% for Hassania and an average of 1.36 points per match for Raja versus 0.93 for their opponents, which increases the likelihood of maintaining the lead. The home advantage is also supported by xG of 1.18 vs 1.02 and a higher number of shots 8.93 vs 7.5 (on-target shots 3.14 vs 3.14), meaning Raja creates slightly more scoring opportunities. At the same time the visitors are more active after the break — they score an average of 0.64 goals in second halves and concede 0.86, and 71% of their matches see at least one goal after the break, so scenarios with an equalizer (1/X, X/X) have significant probability. Accordingly I assign the highest probability to 1/1 (38%), then half-time draw and full-time draw (X/X 20%), 1/X 12% and X/1 10%, with the remaining combinations having lower chances.