Rajasthan United vs Sreenidi Deccan: match statistics

Sreenidi Deccan come into the match in considerably better form: they have won 3 of their last 5 games and drawn 2, while Rajasthan United have recorded 4 defeats and 1 draw. The visitors scored 8 goals during this period, compared with 7 for the hosts, so the difference in attack is marginal. The teams are much further apart defensively: Sreenidi conceded 5 goals in 5 matches, while Rajasthan conceded 14—an average of 2.8 per game. This means that, despite scoring a comparable number of goals, the visitors are better placed to exploit the hosts' defensive weaknesses. Rajasthan are currently 7th, compared with Sreenidi in 11th, but recent results point towards an away win.

In their last 5 matches, both teams scored in 80% of Rajasthan United’s games and 100% of Sreenidi Deccan’s, making this the strongest signal in favor of BTTS - Yes. The hosts averaged 1.4 goals during this period, while the visitors averaged 1.6, so both sides have been finding the net regularly. Rajasthan’s defense is particularly encouraging for this pick, having conceded an average of 2.8 goals per match; Sreenidi, meanwhile, conceded 1.0, giving the hosts a chance to score. The teams’ average xG figures are similar at 1.71 and 1.75, so I rate both teams to score as clearly more likely than a scenario in which at least one team fails to score.

In their last 5 matches, Rajasthan United averaged 1.4 goals scored but conceded as many as 2.8, while Sreenidi Deccan scored 1.6 and conceded 1.0 goals. The average total goals in each team’s matches was therefore 4.2 and 2.6 per game, respectively, with Over 2.5 goals landing in 80% and 60% of their last 5 appearances. Their attacking potential is reflected in xG figures of 1.71 for the hosts and 1.75 for the visitors, while Rajasthan allowed opponents chances worth 1.99 xG per game. An estimated 3.39 goals points to a high-scoring game, but Over 1.5 goals is the most likely pick: it requires just two goals and is estimated to have an 85% chance.

The strongest indicator is Sreenidi Deccan leading at the break in 3 of their last 5 matches, while Rajasthan United led at half-time only once. The visitors won 3 of those 5 matches and lost none, whereas the hosts suffered 4 defeats and recorded no wins. After the break, Rajasthan conceded an average of 2.0 goals and lost the second half in all 5 matches, increasing the likelihood that the visitors will hold on to any lead. Sreenidi’s advantage is also supported by averages of 1.6 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per match, compared with 1.4 and 2.8 respectively for the hosts. Therefore, the most likely scenario is for the visitors to lead both at half-time and at full-time, although this assessment is based on a short run of 5 matches.