Raków Częstochowa vs Arka Gdynia: match statistics
Raków Częstochowa vs Arka Gdynia: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
Raków Częstochowa played against Arka Gdynia in Ekstraklasa (Poland). The game was played on May 23, 2026. Venue: Stadion Raków. Final score: 3:0.
Recent form
Raków Częstochowa has 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 loss over its last five games, averaging 2.40 points per game. Arka Gdynia has 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses, with 0.40 points per game.
Scoring records
Raków Częstochowa scores 1.45 goals per game and allows 1.21. Arka Gdynia scores 1.03 and allows 1.76. Games in this league average 2.71 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 58% of Raków Częstochowa's games and 52% of Arka Gdynia's. The Over 2.5 rates are 45% and 61%, compared with league averages of 57% for BTTS and 52% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
Raków Częstochowa has the higher season xG average, 1.68 to 1.28 per game. Raków Częstochowa takes 14.0 shots per game, while Arka Gdynia takes 10.6.
First-half and second-half trends
Raków Częstochowa leads at halftime in 27% of its games and scores 0.79 goals per game after halftime. Arka Gdynia leads at halftime in 21% and scores 0.61 after halftime.
When the teams score
Raków Częstochowa's most productive scoring window is minutes 76-90+ (11 goals). For Arka Gdynia, it is minutes 46-60 (10 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
Ekstraklasa games average 2.71 goals. Both teams score in 57% of games, and 52% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
Before this game, one previous meeting was available. The record was 1 home win, 0 draws and 0 away wins. Those games averaged 5.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 100% of them.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Raków Częstochowa has a clear statistical advantage at home: they score on average 1.25 goals and concede 0.94 per match, with home xG 1.70 versus xG against 1.47; additionally they average 4.13 shots on target and 54% possession. Arka Gdynia away scores only 0.63 goals per match, concedes 2.31 goals and has 56% of away matches without scoring, with xG for 1.18 and xG against 1.98, indicating significant offensive and defensive issues. In the short term Raków has 3 wins in the last 5 matches, 7 goals scored and 1.8 points per match, while Arka in the same period has no wins (0), scored 4 goals and has only 0.4 points per match. Considering the difference in average goals (1.25 vs 0.63), weaker xG and a high away loss rate for Arka (75%), I expect a home advantage and a win for the hosts.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Combining Raków’s attacking xG of 1.38 with Arka’s conceded xG of 1.98 yields an expected xG for the home side of approximately 1.68, while pairing Arka’s attacking xG of 1.18 with Raków’s defense xG conceded of 1.55 gives the visitors around 1.37. Under a Poisson distribution this translates to roughly an 81% chance Raków will score at least once and about 75% for Arka, which in a simple multiplicative model results in a BTTS (Both Teams To Score) probability of approximately 61%. This is supported by seasonal indicators: Raków’s season BTTS rate is 65%, the league average is 56%, and in the last 5 matches BTTS occurred in 40% of Raków’s games and 60% of Arka’s. Additionally, Arka concedes on average 2.31 goals per match and has only 13% clean sheets, whereas Raków scores 1.41 goals on average and has 29% clean sheets, so both teams regularly concede. Considering the xG model (~61%), Raków’s high seasonal BTTS (65%), and Arka’s poor defense (2.31 goals conceded per match) combined with Arka’s low offensive efficiency (0.63 goals per match and 6% conversion rate), I recommend BTTS - Yes with an estimated edge of 62% vs 38%.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Based on average xG I calculate expected goals: Raków 1.68 = (1.38 + 1.98)/2, Arka 1.37 = (1.18 + 1.55)/2, totaling 3.05 goals. This 3.05 is clearly above the league average of 2.71 and exceeds Raków’s season home average goals 1.41 and Arka’s away average 0.63, although Arka’s low shot conversion of 6% (Raków 13%) may limit their finishing. Supporting the expectation of goals: Raków averages 3.88 shots on target, Arka 2.94, and Arka has scored 4 and conceded 11 in the last 5 matches, which increases the likelihood of goals in the match. Using a Poisson model with total lambda=3.05 yields probabilities: Over 1.5 ≈81%, Over 2.5 ≈59%, Over 3.5 ≈36%. The strongest signal is Over 1.5 (81%): the high expected 3.05 goals and season Over 1.5 rates of 71% (Raków) and 75% (Arka) favor this stake; Over 2.5 is moderate (59%), and Over 3.5 is too risky (36%).
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Raków is the favorite: the most likely scenario is a lead at the break and a Full-Time victory (1/1). Raków led at half-time in 7 of 17 matches (41%), while Arka were not leading at the break in any match (0%); hosts average 0.71 goals by half-time versus Arka’s 0.13. Raków averages 11.29 shots per match, 3.88 on target, with a conversion rate of 13% and xG 1.38, while Arka register 9.94 shots, 2.94 on target, a 6% conversion rate and xG 1.18, giving Raków an advantage in attacking efficiency. Arka’s defense is problematic (they concede 2.31 goals per match) and the visitors win only 6% of fixtures this season, whereas Raków have a 47% win rate overall and 60% in the last 5 matches; additionally Raków have scored 6 goals in minutes 0–15 versus 0 for Arka, increasing the probability of a Half-Time lead.
View first-half and second-half statisticsStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| Raków Częstochowa | Arka Gdynia | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 34% | 32% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
Raków Częstochowa is 500% better for: last-5 form.
2.4 pts / game - Raków Częstochowa · 0.4 pts / game - Arka Gdynia
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Raków Częstochowa is 41% better for: goals scored per game.
1.45 goals / game - Raków Częstochowa · 1.03 goals / game - Arka Gdynia
Raków Częstochowa is 45% better for: goals allowed per game.
1.21 goals / game - Raków Częstochowa · 1.76 goals / game - Arka Gdynia
Raków Częstochowa scores in 79% of games (26 of 33 meczów), while Arka Gdynia keeps a clean sheet in 21% (7 of 33 meczów).
Arka Gdynia scores in 61% of games (20 of 33 meczów), while Raków Częstochowa keeps a clean sheet in 27% (9 of 33 meczów).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Raków Częstochowa
Over / Under - Arka Gdynia
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Raków Częstochowa is 29% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.33 pts / game - Raków Częstochowa · 1.03 pts / game - Arka Gdynia
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Raków Częstochowa - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 27% of games and wins 45%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Allows 0.2 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
Arka Gdynia - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 21% of games and wins 27%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Defense stays consistent across the full game.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| Goals scored / game | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Average goals per game | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +4 | +2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| Average goals per game | 1.0 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 20% |
| No goal | 80% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -3 | -4 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (11 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (10 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (15). Late-goal balance (76-90): -4 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
Raków Częstochowa
Arka Gdynia
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Ekstraklasa).
Teams vs league
| Raków Częstochowa | Liga | Arka Gdynia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | • 2.67 | 2.71 | • 2.79 |
| Both teams scored | • 58% | 57% | ▼ 52% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 45% | 52% | ▲ 61% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 27% | 25% | ▼ 21% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 67% | 72% | ▼ 70% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 85% | 77% | ▼ 73% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Record from Raków Częstochowa's perspective: 1 win, 0 draws and 0 losses against Arka Gdynia. Games average 5.00 goals, and both teams scored in 100% of them.
FAQ
What was the result of Raków Częstochowa vs Arka Gdynia?
The Ekstraklasa match finished Raków Częstochowa 3:0 Arka Gdynia. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Raków Częstochowa vs Arka Gdynia?
Raków Częstochowa score 1.45 goals per game on average and Arka Gdynia 1.03. The Ekstraklasa average is 2.71 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 52% of games. Both teams score in 58% of Raków Częstochowa's matches and 52% of Arka Gdynia's.
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Arka Gdynia in?
Over the last 5 games Raków Częstochowa have a 4-0-1 record (2.40 points per game) and Arka Gdynia 0-2-3 (0.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Raków Częstochowa vs Arka Gdynia?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.