Ranheim vs Haugesund: match statistics

Haugesund sits 2nd in the table with 10 wins and 44 goals scored this season, while Ranheim are 8th with 6 wins and 36 goals, giving the visitors a clear advantage in season-long output. In the last 5 matches Haugesund have scored 14 goals and average 1.8 points per game, whereas Ranheim have only 8 goals and 0.6 points per game, so recent form strongly favors the visitors. Offensively both teams are dangerous (an average of 3.13 goals per match), with Ranheim registering a home xG of 1.99 versus Haugesund’s 1.85 on the road, but the visitors generate more shots on target (7.5 vs 6.5) and have a better conversion rate (21% vs 17%). Defensively Ranheim are in crisis — they have conceded 17 goals in the last 5 matches (3.4 per game), while Haugesund have conceded 11 (2.2 per game); therefore, given superior efficiency and recent form I favor a Haugesund win.

Ranheim has a seasonal BTTS rate of 86% and Haugesund 75% versus a league level of 61%, indicating a significantly higher likelihood of Goal/Goal than the league average. In the last 5 matches Ranheim recorded BTTS at 80% and Haugesund 100%, with average goals in the last 5 matches of 1.6 (Ranheim) and 2.8 (Haugesund) and average goals conceded 3.4 and 2.2, showing both teams have recently been scoring and conceding. xG confirms the chance creation — Ranheim xG for 2.00 vs xG against 1.37, Haugesund xG for 1.85 vs xG against 1.47 — both teams generate around 2.0 xG and allow over 1.3 xG, which favors an exchange of goals. Additionally, clean sheet rates are low: Ranheim 14% and Haugesund 25%, and both sides have a high percentage of matches over 2.5 goals (71% and 88%), meaning matches without a goal from one side are uncommon. Considering the above figures, I tip BTTS - Yes at 85% vs 15%, because the combination of seasonal 86%/75%, recent 80%/100% and low 14%/25% clean sheets gives a strong signal that both teams will score.

xG and statistical analysis clearly favor the Over option: Ranheim xG is 2.00 versus xG conceded to Haugesund 1.47, implying a 1.74 goal projection for the home side; similarly Haugesund xG 1.85 versus xG conceded to Ranheim 1.37 implies 1.61 for the away side, totalling 3.35 expected goals. Season-long Over 2.5 occurred in 71% of Ranheim matches and 88% of Haugesund matches, and both teams recorded Over 2.5 in 100% of their last 5 meetings, which further strengthens the signal. Both sides generate high shot volumes (Ranheim 16.71, 7.14 on target; Haugesund 14.63, 7.5 on target) with conversion rates of 16% vs 21%, supporting a realistic goal tally. Season BTTS 86% (Ranheim) and 75% (Haugesund) and a league average of 3.77 goals per game confirm a propensity for high-scoring affairs, therefore I recommend Over 2.5 as the optimal line. Over 1.5 is practically guaranteed (season 100% for both), while Over 3.5 has lower but notable probability (season 57% and 88%), hence the primary recommendation is Over 2.5.

Statistics indicate Haugesund more often holds a lead at the break: average first-half goals are 1.63 for the visitors versus 1.14 for Ranheim, and the visitors led at half-time in 5 matches (63%) and in 4 of the last 5 (80%). Conversely Ranheim is stronger after the break — they average 1.57 goals in second halves and concede only 0.71, translating into 16 points gained and an average 2.29 points per match in second halves; Haugesund average 1.5 scored and 1.5 conceded after the break. Both teams have a high share of BTTS matches (86% Ranheim, 75% Haugesund) and similar xG (2.0 vs 1.85), so I expect goals from both sides and dynamics with potential lead changes. On that basis the most likely scenario is Haugesund leading at half-time and Ranheim producing a turnaround to win after the break (HT/FT 2/1), therefore I mark 2/1 as the pick with 27% probability; alternatives are the visitors holding on (2/2 18%), draw/draw (X/X 12%) and draw -> home win (X/1 15%).