Ranheim vs Raufoss: match statistics

Ranheim is the favorite in this fixture: they sit 7th in the table versus Raufoss in 11th. In the last 5 matches Ranheim scored 13 goals and won 3, while Raufoss scored 7 and won only 1 of their last five. Ranheim averages 1.8 points per match over the last 5 games, Raufoss only 0.8, which demonstrates a clearer ability of the home side to accumulate points. Defenses of both teams look similar — both conceded 9 goals in the last 5 matches, and across the season Ranheim has a goal difference of 3 scored/2 conceded, while Raufoss has 1 scored/3 conceded. Considering the offensive edge and superior PPG, I assess the chances as: home win 60%, draw 22%, away win 18%.

The strongest signals supporting BTTS come from form: in the last 5 matches both teams had BTTS in 80% of cases (4 of 5), which constitutes a strong short-term pattern. Ranheim scored 13 goals in those 5 games (avg. 2.6 per match) and conceded 9 (1.8), while Raufoss scored 7 goals (1.4) and also conceded 9 (1.8), meaning both teams regularly score and concede. This is confirmed by xG values: attacking xG averages of 1.44 for Ranheim and 1.28 for Raufoss and xG against of 1.47 and 1.57, indicating both sides generate and allow approximately 1.3–1.6 expected goals per match. Additionally Ranheim has a season BTTS rate of 100%, and the league BTTS percentage is 56% (though Raufoss’s seasonal stats are partially incomplete and show 0 in some fields), so I place greater weight on the last 5 matches. For these reasons I predict BTTS = Yes with a 75% probability.

In the last 5 matches Ranheim scored 13 goals (2.6 per match) and Raufoss 7 goals (1.4 per match), totaling 4.0 goals per game; by comparison the league average is 3.86 goals per match. Looking at xG, the last 5 matches show xG for Ranheim 1.44 and for Raufoss 1.28 (sum 2.72), and Ranheim’s season xG is 1.57 with xG against 1.45, which combined with average shots of 12 and 5 on target suggests a significant number of offensive opportunities. Additionally, Ranheim has 100% of matches over 2.5 goals both this season and in the last 5, and the league records 93% of matches over 2.5 goals; both teams have had 80% of matches where both teams scored, which strengthens the over signal. Considering that cumulative xG is 2.72 but observed goals in the last 5 are 4.0 and the league is high-scoring (3.86), I project expected goals of 1.9 for Ranheim and 1.4 for Raufoss, totaling 3.3 goals. The strongest betting signal is Over 2.5 goals, because the combination of Ranheim’s 100% overs, the league’s 93% Over 2.5 rate and an average of 4.0 goals in the last 5 matches gives an edge on Over 2.5 goals.

Ranheim has a clear advantage in offensive metrics: xG 1.57 versus 0.0 for Raufoss, and on average 12 shots versus 0 and 5 shots on target versus 0, indicating home pressure. However, at Half-Time Ranheim concedes on average 2.0 goals and across the season were losing after 45 minutes in 100% of their matches while leading at the break in 0% of cases, so there is a real risk they will be trailing at the break. In their last 5 matches Ranheim won 60% of games, and in second halves they scored on average 2.25 goals versus 0.6 for Raufoss, suggesting the hosts’ ability to stage a turnaround after the break. Considering the xG 1.57 vs 0.0, the shot advantage (12 vs 0) and the tendency to score after Half-Time, the most likely scenario is Raufoss leading at Half-Time and Ranheim winning the match (HT/FT 2/1).