Ratchaburi vs Buriram United: match statistics

Buriram United have won all 3 of their away matches so far, while Ratchaburi have won 2 of their 3 home games. The visitors create slightly better scoring chances on the road, averaging 2.16 xG compared with the hosts’ 1.95 at home, and record an average of 7 shots on target against 5.67. However, Ratchaburi are more clinical in front of goal: they average 2.67 goals per home match with a 20% shooting conversion rate, while Buriram score 1.67 goals away from home at an 8% conversion rate. The defensive numbers give the visitors a slight edge, as they concede an average of 0.33 goals away compared with 0.67 conceded by the hosts at home; additionally, Ratchaburi have conceded 9 goals in their last 5 matches. With both teams in similar form over their last 5 games — 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses apiece — Buriram’s perfect away record and chance quality give them a slight advantage.

Both teams scored in 100% of Ratchaburi’s home matches and in 80% of their last 5 matches overall, supporting a BTTS - Yes pick. The hosts average 2.0 goals at home with an xG of 2.36, giving them the potential to break down Buriram’s defense, despite the visitors keeping a clean sheet in 67% of their away matches. On the other hand, Ratchaburi concede an average of 2.0 goals at home, while Buriram score 1.67 goals away and post an xG of 2.16, increasing the likelihood of an away goal. Caution is warranted, however, as BTTS landed in only 33% of Buriram’s away matches; overall, the stronger signal comes from both teams’ attacking output and the hosts’ defensive vulnerability.

Ratchaburi average 2.0 goals scored, while Buriram United average 1.67, with xG averages of 2.36 and 2.16 respectively, pointing to attacking potential on both sides. Each team has scored 12 goals across their last five matches, while Ratchaburi have conceded an average of 1.8 goals per game. The case for a higher line is supported by at least 3 goals being scored in 80% of Ratchaburi’s last five matches. However, Buriram have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their league matches this season, making this signal less reliable. The projected total of 3.10 goals offers the strongest value on Over 1.5 goals; moreover, all of Ratchaburi’s matches to date have gone over this line.

Buriram have led at the break in all three of their matches so far this season, averaging 1.67 first-half goals and conceding none; Ratchaburi have led in only one of their three games. The visitors have won all three matches and concede an average of 0.33 goals, while the hosts have won one of three and concede an average of two. This supports the view that Buriram’s first-half advantage will hold through to the end of the match, although the sample covers only three games per team. Caution is warranted, as Ratchaburi have averaged 2.36 xG compared with the visitors’ 2.16, and Buriram have yet to score after the break in these three matches. Even so, over their last five games the visitors have led at the break more often than the hosts, 60% to 40%, making a Buriram HT/FT win the most likely single scenario.