Raufoss vs Kongsvinger: match statistics

I back the away win (Kongsvinger). The visitors sit 4th vs 10th for the hosts and average 1.4 points per game over the last 5 matches, while Raufoss only average 0.8. In attack Kongsvinger have scored 8 goals in their last 5 (1.6 per game) versus the hosts’ 6 goals (1.2 per game), and defensively the visitors conceded 7 goals (1.4 per game) compared to Raufoss’s 10 conceded (2.0 per game). The superior goal difference and slightly better recent winning record (2 wins for Kongsvinger vs 1 for Raufoss in the last 5) favor the away side, so I give the visitors the highest probability.

I back BTTS - Yes due to clear offensive signals and susceptibility to conceding: the league BTTS rate is 60%, and Raufoss has BTTS 60% in the last 5 matches versus Kongsvinger’s 20%, favoring a both-teams-to-score scenario. In the last 5 games Raufoss scored 6 goals (1.2 per game) and conceded 10 goals (2.0 per game), while Kongsvinger scored 8 (1.6) and conceded 7 (1.4), so both sides create scoring opportunities. xG metrics over the last 5 matches are 1.43 (Raufoss) and 1.57 (Kongsvinger) in attack, and 1.47 and 1.52 in defense, indicating ~1.4–1.6 expected xG on both sides and supporting goal exchanges. Additionally, Raufoss’s season home xG is 1.62 with xG against 1.35, and the league average goals is 4.0 per match, further increasing the likelihood that both teams will score at least one goal.

xG and form analysis over the last 5 matches yields combined expected goals around 3.00: Raufoss 1.43 xG vs Kongsvinger 1.57 xG. In their last 5 games the teams averaged 1.2 (Raufoss) and 1.6 (Kongsvinger) goals respectively, totaling 2.8 goals, which aligns with calculated xG and indicates a real goal-scoring potential. Raufoss at home averages 11 shots and 7 shots on target per match and has a season shot conversion rate of 27%, while the home team seasonal goals average is 3.0 (though season data is partially limited), pointing to high offensive efficiency. Additionally, the league averages 4.0 goals per match and the season proportion of matches over 2.5 is 100%, and in Raufoss’s last 5 matches 60% were over 2.5, which reinforces the over scenario. Based on this I select Over 2.5 as the optimal line: I estimate over/under probabilities as 1.5: 90/10, 2.5: 72/28 and 3.5: 28/72.

Raufoss led at the break in 1 of 1 matches this season (100%), averaging 1.0 goal at half-time and 3.0 goals per match. Their average xG is 1.62 versus 0.0 for Kongsvinger, and the hosts average 11.0 shots and 7.0 on target per match compared to 0.0 for the visitors, indicating a clear advantage in chance creation. Additionally, Raufoss have not conceded yet (0.0 goals conceded on average, 100% clean sheets), which reduces the likelihood of a turnaround in the second half. On this basis the most likely scenario is the hosts leading at half-time and winning after 90 minutes (HT/FT 1/1) — I assess this at 60%, with draw or away-win variants combined at 40%. Kongsvinger have 0.0 points and 0.0 goals in season data, so turnaround scenarios (e.g. 1/2 assigned 8% or 2/1 assigned 3%) are considered unlikely.