Raufoss vs Sogndal: match statistics

Raufoss scores on average 1.6 goals and concedes 1.8 goals per home match, while Sogndal averages 1.33 scored and 2.67 conceded on the road, indicating a defensive edge for the hosts. xG values corroborate this gap: Raufoss posts xG 1.39 with xG against 1.34 at home, whereas Sogndal generates xG 1.53 away but concedes opponents an average xG 2.19. Raufoss converts chances more efficiently (conversion rate 13% vs 10% for Sogndal) and fails to score in only 20% of home matches, while Sogndal is goalless in 50% of away fixtures and has no clean sheets on the road. Both teams have 9 goals in the last 5 matches, but Raufoss conceded 14 of those goals versus Sogndal’s 12; nonetheless the season goal difference is -1 for Raufoss at home versus -8 for Sogndal away, which further favors the hosts. Considering the lower average goals conceded (1.8 vs 2.67), better efficiency (13% vs 10%) and lower risk of failing to score (20% vs 50%), I assess a higher probability of a home win.

I forecast BTTS - Yes because both teams concede heavily: Raufoss concedes 2.0 goals per match on the season (2.8 in last 5), and Sogndal 2.67 on the season (2.4 in last 5). Both also score regularly — Raufoss averages 2.2 goals on the season, Sogndal 1.33, and in the last 5 matches each has scored 9 goals (1.8 average), indicating consistent offensive output. BTTS trends are strong: season BTTS rates are 60% for the home side and 50% for the away side, but in the last 5 matches Sogndal has 80% BTTS and Raufoss 60%, giving roughly a 70% recent probability for Goal/Goal. Additionally the league averages 3.62 goals per match; % of matches over 2.5 is 80% for Raufoss and 83% for Sogndal, and xG shows significant scoring opportunities (xG for home 2.01 and for away 1.53; xG against 2.43 and 2.19 respectively). Counter-risk exists — Sogndal failed to score in 50% of matches this season and records only 3.17 shots on target on average — therefore I favor BTTS - Yes but with moderate confidence.

xG analysis points to a high-scoring affair: Raufoss generates 2.01 xG on average while Sogndal concedes 2.19 xG — implying roughly 2.10 expected goals for the home side; Sogndal generates 1.53 xG while Raufoss concedes 2.43 xG, implying about 1.98 expected goals for the away side. Raufoss averages 17.2 shots (7.0 on target) with a 13% conversion rate, whereas Sogndal records 13.67 shots (3.17 on target) with a 10% conversion, which increases the likelihood of goals for the hosts. Historically both teams have 100% of matches over 1.5 goals, and season Over 2.5 rates are 80% for Raufoss and 83% for Sogndal (avg ~82%), strongly favoring at least three goals. The league averages 3.62 goals per match, and in the last 5 fixtures Raufoss scored 9 and conceded 14, while Sogndal scored 9 and conceded 12 — confirming a tendency toward high-scoring games. Given these data, the strongest and most reliable signal is the over 1.5 line (virtually 100% of both teams’ matches exceed 1.5), hence the recommendation to play Over 1.5 with a combined expected xG ≈4.08 (2.10 vs 1.98).

The analysis indicates the most probable scenario is Raufoss leading at half-time and the home side winning at full-time (1/1). Raufoss led at the break in 60% of home matches and averaged 1.4 goals in the first half, while Sogndal averaged only 0.17 goals by half-time. The home team also have higher xG (2.01 vs 1.53), more shots (17.2 vs 13.67) and more shots on target (7.0 vs 3.17), which confirms their superiority in creating chances. Sogndal, however, score more frequently after the break (away side’s average second-half goals 2.83 and 4 goals in the 61–75 minute window), so I allocate 12% to a 1/X turnaround and 6% to a 1/2 comeback as realistic scenarios. Overall, with 60% leads at the break and Raufoss’s xG and superior shots-on-target stats, I assess a 42% probability for 1/1.