Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Club Bilbao: match statistics
Athletic Club Bilbao has demonstrated significantly better form over the last five matches, securing 2.4 points per game and winning four of those five fixtures, whereas Rayo Vallecano is in crisis with just 0.6 points per game and four defeats in their last five outings. Although Rayo holds home advantage and a positive home goal difference (+2), their high draw percentage (55%) in home games points to a struggle to convert matches into wins. Athletic boasts superior overall statistics (10 wins compared to Rayo's 6) and an advantage in expected goals (xG), indicating a higher quality of play. The visitors' form, a crucial factor here, clearly favors Athletic Club Bilbao, making them the favorites despite their struggles on the road. The predicted outcome is an away win, approached with caution due to Rayo's resilience at home.
Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Club Bilbao: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
Rayo Vallecano played against Athletic Club Bilbao in La Liga (Spain). The game was played on February 28, 2026. Final score: 1:1.
Recent form
Rayo Vallecano has 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses over its last five games, averaging 0.80 points per game. Athletic Club Bilbao has 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss, with 2.00 points per game.
Scoring records
Rayo Vallecano scores 0.92 goals per game and allows 1.29. Athletic Club Bilbao scores 1.16 and allows 1.40. Games in this league average 2.66 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 42% of Rayo Vallecano's games and 52% of Athletic Club Bilbao's. The Over 2.5 rates are 42% and 48%, compared with league averages of 55% for BTTS and 50% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
Athletic Club Bilbao has the higher season xG average, 1.63 to 1.49 per game. Rayo Vallecano takes 13.3 shots per game, while Athletic Club Bilbao takes 14.5.
First-half and second-half trends
Rayo Vallecano leads at halftime in 25% of its games and scores 0.38 goals per game after halftime. Athletic Club Bilbao leads at halftime in 20% and scores 0.64 after halftime.
When the teams score
Rayo Vallecano's most productive scoring window is minutes 31-45+ (8 goals). For Athletic Club Bilbao, it is minutes 76-90+ (9 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
La Liga games average 2.66 goals. Both teams score in 55% of games, and 50% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
Before this game, one previous meeting was available. The record was 0 home wins, 0 draws and 1 away win. Those games averaged 1.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 0% of them.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Athletic Club Bilbao has demonstrated significantly better form over the last five matches, securing 2.4 points per game and winning four of those five fixtures, whereas Rayo Vallecano is in crisis with just 0.6 points per game and four defeats in their last five outings. Although Rayo holds home advantage and a positive home goal difference (+2), their high draw percentage (55%) in home games points to a struggle to convert matches into wins. Athletic boasts superior overall statistics (10 wins compared to Rayo's 6) and an advantage in expected goals (xG), indicating a higher quality of play. The visitors' form, a crucial factor here, clearly favors Athletic Club Bilbao, making them the favorites despite their struggles on the road. The predicted outcome is an away win, approached with caution due to Rayo's resilience at home.
View the statistical overviewStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| Rayo Vallecano | Athletic Club Bilbao | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 34% | 32% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
Athletic Club Bilbao is 150% better for: last-5 form.
0.8 pts / game - Rayo Vallecano · 2 pts / game - Athletic Club Bilbao
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Athletic Club Bilbao is 26% better for: goals scored per game.
0.92 goals / game - Rayo Vallecano · 1.16 goals / game - Athletic Club Bilbao
Rayo Vallecano is 9% better for: goals allowed per game.
1.29 goals / game - Rayo Vallecano · 1.4 goals / game - Athletic Club Bilbao
Rayo Vallecano scores in 58% of games (14 of 24 meczów), while Athletic Club Bilbao keeps a clean sheet in 20% (5 of 25 meczów).
Athletic Club Bilbao scores in 68% of games (17 of 25 meczów), while Rayo Vallecano keeps a clean sheet in 29% (7 of 24 meczów).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Rayo Vallecano
Over / Under - Athletic Club Bilbao
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Rayo Vallecano - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 25% of games and wins 25%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Allows 0.4 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
Athletic Club Bilbao - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 20% of games and wins 40%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Allows 0.4 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Average goals per game | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -1 | -2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.6 | 1.4 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Average goals per game | 1.2 | 2.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 20% |
| Goal difference | 0 | +3 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (8 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): -6 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (9 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
Rayo Vallecano
Athletic Club Bilbao
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (La Liga).
Teams vs league
| Rayo Vallecano | Liga | Athletic Club Bilbao | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | ▼ 2.21 | 2.66 | ▼ 2.56 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 42% | 55% | ▼ 52% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 42% | 50% | ▼ 48% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 29% | 25% | ▼ 20% |
| Goal before half-time | • 67% | 66% | ▼ 60% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 75% | 84% | ▲ 88% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Record from Rayo Vallecano's perspective: 0 wins, 0 draws and 1 loss against Athletic Club Bilbao. Games average 1.00 goals, and both teams scored in 0% of them.
FAQ
What was the result of Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Club Bilbao?
The La Liga match finished Rayo Vallecano 1:1 Athletic Club Bilbao. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Club Bilbao?
Rayo Vallecano score 0.92 goals per game on average and Athletic Club Bilbao 1.16. The La Liga average is 2.66 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 50% of games. Both teams score in 42% of Rayo Vallecano's matches and 52% of Athletic Club Bilbao's.
What form are Rayo Vallecano and Athletic Club Bilbao in?
Over the last 5 games Rayo Vallecano have a 1-1-3 record (0.80 points per game) and Athletic Club Bilbao 3-1-1 (2.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Club Bilbao?
The statistical background for Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Club Bilbao — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.