RCD Mallorca vs Real Valladolid: match statistics

RCD Mallorca have been clearly more effective in their last five matches, scoring 14 goals compared with Real Valladolid’s 10. The hosts have won 4 of their last 5 games and remain unbeaten, averaging 2.6 points per match; the visitors have recorded 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat during the same period, averaging 2.0 points. Mallorca have conceded just 3 goals in their last five appearances, one fewer than Valladolid, further highlighting their defensive superiority. Both teams are showing good current form, but the hosts’ 14:3 goal difference compared with the visitors’ 10:4, combined with home advantage, points to a more likely Mallorca victory.

BTTS - No is supported primarily by the solid defensive performances of both teams in their last five matches: Mallorca conceded an average of 0.6 goals, while Valladolid conceded 0.8. Both teams recorded BTTS in only 40% of their last five games, meaning that in 3 out of 5 matches, at least one side failed to score. Valladolid’s limited attacking potential against the hosts’ defense is particularly evident in the xG figures: the visitors created an average of 0.91 xG, while Mallorca allowed opponents just 0.57 xG. Mallorca are in excellent offensive form, scoring 14 goals in five matches, but their advantage may lead to a one-sided result rather than goals from both teams. Season-long data does not provide a meaningful comparative basis, so greater weight should be given to current results and defensive numbers from the last five matches.

Mallorca averaged 2.8 goals scored over their last five matches, but their average xG was significantly lower at 1.51, suggesting a potential decline in finishing efficiency. Valladolid averaged 2.0 goals, with an xG of just 0.91, while the hosts allowed opponents only 0.57 xG per match. Both teams conceded few goals: Mallorca 0.6 and Valladolid 0.8 goals per game in this sample. Although Mallorca’s matches featured Over 2.5 goals in 80% of their last five fixtures, the both teams to score rate was only 40% for both sides, limiting the likelihood of a very open game. The projected total of 2.35 goals provides the strongest edge on Under 3.5 goals, as four or more goals would require finishing efficiency to remain significantly above the level of chances created.

Mallorca are clearly in better rhythm: they have collected 13 points from their last five matches, winning four and remaining unbeaten, while averaging 2.8 goals scored and just 0.6 conceded. The hosts held a lead at the break in 80% of those matches, scored an average of 1.4 goals before half-time and conceded only 0.2, whereas Valladolid were trailing at half-time in 40% of their games. Valladolid are also showing solid form, averaging 2.0 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per match, but they led at the break in only 40% of matches, compared with Mallorca’s 80%. After the interval, Mallorca continue to average 1.4 goals and win the second half in 80% of matches, which is why the most likely outcome remains a home lead after 45 minutes followed by a home win: HT/FT 1/1.