Real Garcilaso vs Juan Pablo II College: match statistics

Real Garcilaso are significantly stronger at home, where they win 70% of their matches, score an average of 1.9 goals and concede just 0.8 per game. Juan Pablo II College have lost 60% of their away matches, while their defense allows an average of 2.5 goals, with a -14 goal difference. The hosts create more chances, averaging 15.5 shots and 5.5 on target per match, compared with 8.7 and 3.3 for the visitors, while their xG stands at 1.64 versus 0.99 for their opponents. Recent form also favors Real Garcilaso, who have won 3 of their last 5 matches and scored 12 goals in that run, while the visitors have managed just 5. In addition, Juan Pablo II College have kept no clean sheets in away matches, further strengthening the prediction of a home win.

The signal for both teams to score is clear, as Real Garcilaso have recorded BTTS in 64% of their matches, while Juan Pablo II College have done so in as many as 70%, compared with the league average of 56%. The hosts have scored 12 goals in their last five matches, averaging 2.4 per game, while the visitors have conceded 1.6 goals per match over this period and as many as 2.5 per game across the season. Juan Pablo II College have kept a clean sheet in none of their matches this season, which significantly increases the hosts’ chances of scoring. However, the visitors have a solid basis for responding: their latest xG stands at 1.34, while Real Garcilaso allow opponents an average of 1.68 xG and have conceded 1.6 goals per game in their last five outings. The risk to the BTTS pick is that the visitors score only 1.1 goals per match on a season-long basis and failed to score in 30% of their games, but the hosts’ weak defense supports a BTTS - Yes scenario.

The strongest signal is Over 1.5 goals, as at least two goals were scored in 91% of Real Garcilaso’s matches and in as many as 100% of Juan Pablo II College’s games. The visitors concede an average of 2.50 goals per match and have kept no clean sheets, which clearly strengthens the forecast for the hosts, who have scored an average of 2.4 goals in their last five appearances. Real Garcilaso also register more shots, averaging 11.18 compared with 8.70, while their average xG stands at 1.24, with the opponent’s xG against them at 1.59. The match also has the potential to produce three goals, as Over 2.5 goals occurred in 55% of the hosts’ matches and 70% of the visitors’ games; however, this line is less reliable than Over 1.5. The projected total of 2.88 goals suggests that the defensive weaknesses of both sides should be sufficient primarily for a safe push above the 1.5-goal line.

Real Garcilaso led at the break in 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring an average of 1.2 goals before half-time, while Juan Pablo II College failed to score in the first half during this period. The hosts are also in better form in terms of results: they have won 60% of their last five matches and averaged 2.4 goals per game, compared with the visitors’ 20% win rate and 1.0 goal per match. The second-half pattern is crucial, as the visitors concede as many as 1.8 goals on average after the break, lose the second half in 70% of their matches, and collect just 0.5 points per game after half-time. Real Garcilaso score an average of 0.91 goals after the break and earn 1.55 points per game, which is why the most likely outcome remains a home lead at half-time followed by a home win: HT/FT 1/1.