Real Garcilaso vs Los Chankas: match statistics

Real Garcilaso holds a clear home advantage: on average 62% possession, 14.83 shots and 5 shots on target per match, translating to 1.5 goals scored and only 0.83 conceded at home. Los Chankas away post 47% possession, 12.67 shots and 4.67 shots on target with an average of 1.33 goals scored and 1.5 conceded, and failed to hit the target in 17% of away matches. In xG Real records 1.55 at home versus 1.32 xG for the visitors away, while xG against is 1.17 vs 1.46 respectively, indicating higher-quality chances and a more robust defensive profile for the hosts. Seasonally Los Chankas have more wins (9 vs 6) and have won 3 of their last 5, but Real’s last 5 read 2-2-1 and they have a 67% home win rate with a +4 goal difference at home. Considering the possession edge, superior home xG and the fact that Real has never finished a home match goalless (0% FTS), I forecast a Real Garcilaso win.

League and seasonal statistics indicate a moderate probability of BTTS - Yes: BTTS occurs in 56% of league matches, with Los Chankas showing a season BTTS rate of 67% versus Real Garcilaso 43%. Real Garcilaso averages 1.86 goals scored at home and concedes 0.86, while Los Chankas averages 1.33 scored and concedes 1.5 away; the home side has better shot conversion (15% vs 11%) and keeps a clean sheet more often (43% vs 17%). xG figures show comparable offensive potential — Real has xG_for 1.37 against Los Chankas xG_against 1.46, and in the last 5 matches Los Chankas recorded xG_for 1.5 and xG_against 1.41, suggesting both teams can create scoring opportunities. Although in the last 5 fixtures Real had BTTS in 60% of matches and Los Chankas 0% in this short sample, Los Chankas’s dominant seasonal profile (67%) and the league's 56% lead me to select BTTS - Yes with an estimated 60% confidence versus 40% for No.

The xG model for this fixture estimates about 2.75 total goals (1.42 for Real Garcilaso and 1.33 for Los Chankas), which already suggests more than 1.5 goals. Over the season Real averages 1.86 goals scored and concedes 0.86, Los Chankas scores 1.33 and concedes 1.50; both teams have 100% of matches with at least one goal, and seasonal Over1.5 rates are 57% (home) and 83% (away). Real averages 12.43 shots with 5.0 on target and a conversion rate of 15%, while Los Chankas averages 12.67 shots with 4.67 on target and an 11% conversion, which supports the projected xG and increases the likelihood of goals. Using a Poisson distribution with lambda=2.75 yields P(Over1.5) ≈ 76%, P(Over2.5) ≈ 52% and P(Over3.5) ≈ 30%, so the strongest signal is Over 1.5. I recommend betting Over 1.5 given the high 76% probability and consistency with seasonal indicators and shots/xG statistics.

Real Garcilaso has a very high home win rate — 86% — and averages 1.86 goals per match compared to 1.33 for Los Chankas, which strongly favors a home victory. At half-time the statistics indicate a draw or a narrow lead: the hosts led at the break in 3 matches (43%) and were level in 4 (57%), with half-time goal averages of 0.86 for Real Garcilaso and 0.83 for Los Chankas. In the second half Real Garcilaso performs better — they average 2.0 points in second halves and win second halves in 56% of cases, and additionally keep a clean sheet at home in 43% of games this season versus 17% for the visitors, which increases the likelihood of a turnaround in favor of the hosts after the break. Data from the last 5 fixtures confirm the tendency for draws at half-time: in the last 5 matches the hosts were level at the break in 80% (4 of 5), scoring 7 half-time goals versus 3 for the opponents. Therefore the most likely scenario is a half-time draw and a home win (X/1) — I estimate its probability at 36%; the next most likely is the hosts leading at half-time and ultimately winning (1/1) at 22%.