Real Madrid vs Deportivo Alavés: match statistics

Real Madrid is the clear favorite: at home they win 81% of matches, score an average of 2.31 goals per game and have an average xG of 2.25, while Deportivo Alavés win only 19% of away matches, score 1.00 goal on average and have xG 1.24. The hosts defend better and maintain a defensive edge — they concede 0.81 goals at home on average versus 1.75 conceded by Alavés away, with Real keeping 31% clean sheets at home compared to the visitors' 6%. Real clearly creates more chances: on average 7.69 shots on target and 19.06 total shots per match with 60% possession, versus 3.63 shots on target, 11.19 total shots and 50% possession for Alavés; shot conversion is 12% vs 9%. However, in the short term both teams have been less stable — Real in the last 5 matches scored 9 and conceded 11 goals, averaging 0.8 points per game, while Alavés in that period scored 12 and conceded 12 goals, averaging 1.2 points per game, which can make the game more open. Considering the home goal differential of +24 versus the visitors' -12 and the advantage in xG (2.25 vs 1.24) and in the quantity and quality of shots, I tip a Real victory.

The key signal is a high BTTS rate: Real has a season BTTS of 73%, Alavés 50%, and in the last 5 matches both teams recorded BTTS 100%. Seasonally Real scored 65 goals (avg 1.27 per match) and conceded 29 (1.2), while Alavés scored 35 (1.0) and conceded 46 (1.75), so Real scores more often and Alavés concedes more. xG and shot metrics support both teams scoring: Real has xG 1.47 versus Alavés conceding 1.55 xG per match, while Alavés has xG 1.24 versus Real conceding 1.29 xG on average; Real averages 4.2 shots on target vs 3.63 for Alavés. In the last 5 matches Real averaged 1.8 goals scored and 2.2 conceded, and Alavés 2.4 scored and 2.4 conceded, which reinforces the both-teams-to-score scenario. Clean sheets are rare (Real 13%, Alavés 6%) and with a league BTTS average of 56% and goals average 2.69 this yields my assessment of 78% for "yes" and 22% for "no", hence the recommendation: "yes" (BTTS - Yes).

Based on xG: Real’s attack has xG 1.47 and Alavés’s defense concedes xG 1.55 — their average yields 1.51 expected goals for Real; conversely Alavés’s attack has xG 1.24 and Real’s defense xG 1.29, giving 1.27 for Alavés, totaling 2.78 goals. This season Real scored 65 goals (1.27 per game) and conceded 29 (1.20), while Alavés has 35 scored (1.00) and 46 conceded (1.75), indicating greater scoring potential for Real and vulnerability for Alavés. Over 1.5 occurred in 80% of Real’s matches and 63% of Alavés’s (average ~72%), so the 1.5 line provides the strongest signal for the over. The 2.5 line shows mixed data: season-long Over 2.5 is 53% (Real) and 44% (Alavés), about 48% overall, but in the last 5 matches both teams had Over 2.5 at 80%, so I assign roughly a 60% probability to Over 2.5. The 3.5 line is less likely (season Over 3.5 20% and 31%, about ~25% average), therefore I recommend playing Over 1.5 as the strongest pick.

Real Madrid led at the break in 5 matches, i.e. 33% of games, while Deportivo Alavés led at the break in only 1 match (6%), which gives a significant home advantage at half-time. The hosts have clearly superior offensive metrics: season goals per game 1.27 versus 1.00 for Alavés, average xG 1.47 versus 1.24, and average shots per game 13.07 versus 11.19 with shots on target 4.20 versus 3.63, increasing the likelihood that Real will open the scoring in the first 45 minutes. In the first half Real scores on average 0.67 and concedes 0.33, while Alavés scores on average 0.38 and concedes 0.75 — this means Real is more efficient at scoring and more solid defensively before the break. The second half is however more goal-prone (80% of home matches and 81% of away matches see a goal after the break), but Real concedes a lower average xG (1.29 versus 1.55 for Alavés) and has a higher home points per game average (1.4 vs 0.75), so the strongest signal is maintaining a lead from half-time to full-time. Practically, I assign the 1/1 scenario about a 26% probability, slightly higher than the possibility of a draw at half-time and a Real win at full-time (X/1 24%) and a draw in both halves (X/X 21%).