Real Salt Lake vs New England Revolution: match statistics

Real Salt Lake have a clear home advantage, winning 54% of their matches there, scoring an average of 1.85 goals and creating chances worth 1.86 xG per game. However, the hosts’ key concern is their current form: they have scored just 3 goals in their last five matches, recorded 0 wins and suffered four defeats. New England Revolution have won 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring 12 goals during that run, and have a significantly better season record overall: 14 wins and 45 goals scored compared with Real’s 8 wins and 37 goals. The visitors do concede an average of 1.54 goals away from home, while their 46% away loss rate limits confidence in the pick. However, the hosts also concede 1.54 goals per match and keep a clean sheet in only 15% of their home games. New England’s superior current efficiency and form outweigh Real’s strong home numbers over the course of the season, making an away win the most likely outcome.

The signal for both teams to score is supported primarily by New England, which had BTTS in 77% of its matches this season and in all 5 of its last games. The visitors average 1.46 goals per match and scored 12 times in their last five, while Real Salt Lake conceded as many as 2.0 goals per game during this period. The hosts are, however, in poor offensive form, having scored only 3 goals in their last five matches, which significantly limits confidence in the pick. At the same time, New England kept a clean sheet in just 8% of its matches this season, while its average xG against is 1.62, so Real Salt Lake should have realistic chances to break through. The season BTTS figures stand at 54% for the hosts and 77% for the visitors, making a Goal/Goal scenario slightly more likely than BTTS No, meaning that at least one team fails to score.

The match profile points towards goals: Real Salt Lake score an average of 2.00 goals at home, while New England Revolution average 1.46 goals, with the hosts conceding 1.00 goal per game and the visitors 1.54. New England are in excellent attacking form, having scored 12 goals in their last five matches, averaging 2.40 per game, while Real Salt Lake have conceded 10 goals during that period. Both teams have high rates of matches featuring at least two goals: 77% for the hosts and 85% for the visitors, while MLS averages 3.21 goals per game. In addition, the visitors have seen Over 2.5 goals in each of their last five appearances, with their average xG over that period standing at 1.84. The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals, as even with the hosts’ recent drop in finishing efficiency, the combination of the visitors’ attacking quality and Real Salt Lake’s vulnerable defense clearly increases the likelihood of at least two goals.

The strongest signal points to New England Revolution leading at the break and maintaining their advantage to secure the win: the visitors have won 4 of their last 5 matches, while Real Salt Lake have lost 4 of 5 and have not recorded a single win during that period. In the first halves of their last five matches, New England were ahead in as many as 80% of cases, while the hosts were never leading at half-time and were trailing in 60% of those matches. Current attacking output also clearly favors the visitors, who have averaged 2.4 goals per match recently, compared with just 0.6 for Real Salt Lake. After the break, New England averaged 1.4 goals across their last five outings, while the hosts conceded an average of 1.0 goal during that period. Although Real Salt Lake have an excellent season-long home record, with a 69% win rate, current form and the visitors’ first-half advantage make the 2/2 HT/FT outcome the most likely.