Real Sociedad II vs SD Eibar: match statistics

I predict an away win (2). Eibar holds a clear form advantage – 4 wins in their last 5 matches and 8 goals scored in that period, while Real Sociedad II has only 2 wins in their last 5 and has conceded 12 goals. Statistically, the home side creates more chances at home (avg. 11.75 shots and 4.38 on target per match, 1.56 goals per match), whereas Eibar on the road averages just 0.53 goals with 2.67 shots on target and a low conversion rate of 6%; the visitors failed to score in 47% of their away matches, which limits their offensive output. Eibar’s defense, however, has been outstanding recently – only 2 goals conceded in five matches and 2.6 points per game in that span – while Real averages 1.2 points per game and has a home xG of 1.29 (for) versus 1.57 (against), suggesting the hosts more frequently allow higher-quality chances to opponents. Considering Eibar’s superior momentum and recent defensive stability, alongside Real’s advantage in chance creation, I favor an away victory, but with moderate probability.

I back BTTS - Yes based on seasonal and recent data favoring both teams scoring. Real Sociedad II has a seasonal BTTS of 53% and 60% in the last 5 matches, while SD Eibar has a seasonal BTTS of 40% and 40% in the last 5, and the league shows 54% BTTS, indicating an overall tendency toward both teams finding the net. In the last 5 meetings Sociedad II concedes an average of 2.4 goals (12 goals in 5), whereas Eibar scores an average of 1.6 goals (8 in 5), so the visitors are capable of troubling the home defense. Additionally, Sociedad II has an average xG of 1.71 versus 1.00 for Eibar and 5.41 shots on target versus 2.67, suggesting the hosts also create chances and are likely to score.

I calculated expected goals using xG: Real Sociedad II attack xG 1.71, Eibar defense xG against 1.46 — the average gives hosts ≈1.59; similarly Eibar attack 1.00 and Sociedad II defense 1.13 give visitors ≈1.07, total 2.66. With combined xG=2.66 a Poisson distribution yields probability of 0 goals ≈7% and 1 goal ≈19% (total ≈26%), so the chance of over 1.5 goals is about 74–75%. Seasonal indicators confirm this view: Real have 71% of home matches with over 1.5 goals, Eibar 47% of away matches with over 1.5, while 82% and 87% of their matches respectively end with at least one goal, reducing the risk of a 0-0. Higher lines are less convincing — probability of over 2.5 is around 50% (0–2 goals ≈50%), and over 3.5 about 28% (0–3 goals ≈72%), so 2.5 and 3.5 lines carry greater risk. Additionally Real have an offensive edge (on average 14.59 shots and 5.41 shots on target vs 8.4 shots and 2.67 on target for Eibar) and higher own xG (1.71 vs 1.00), therefore I recommend Over 1.5 as the best line to play.

Seasonal numbers indicate an advantage for Real Sociedad II: the home side wins 65% of matches versus 13% for SD Eibar, scoring an average of 1.65 goals per game with xG 1.71, while the visitors average 0.53 goals and xG 1.00. However, at Half-Time matches are more often level — the hosts are drawing at the break in 47% of games and score an average of 0.59 goals by Half-Time versus 0.27 for the visitors, and the home side keep a clean sheet at the break in 59% of matches, which favors a low HT score. A key signal in favor of the home team is the second half: Real Sociedad II score on average 1.06 goals after the break versus 0.27 for Eibar, average 1.35 second-half goals compared to 0.87 for the visitors, and win the second half in 53% of cases, so they often overturn a Half-Time draw. Even if Eibar have a strong recent run (80% wins in the last 5 versus 40% for the hosts in that period), the seasonal xG advantage (1.71 vs 1.00) and superiority in shots on target (5.41 vs 2.67) suggest Real Sociedad II are more likely to produce a turnaround after the break. Therefore the most likely scenario is a draw at Half-Time and a home win at Full-Time (X/1), with alternatives being 1/1 or X/X with lower probability.