Real Sociedad vs Levante UD: match statistics

Real Sociedad is the favorite in this match due to home advantage: at home they score on average 1.93 goals per game with xG 1.54 and have a positive goal difference of +6, whereas Levante away averages only 1.14 goals with xG 1.11 and a negative goal difference of -6. The hosts create more chances – 12.93 shots and 5.14 shots on target per home match versus 10 shots and 3.29 on target for Levante away, and Real also has a higher conversion rate 15% vs 11%, which increases the likelihood of converting chances. Both teams concede a similar number of goals (1.5 for Real at home vs 1.57 for Levante away), but Levante has a significantly higher expected goals against (1.85 vs 1.43 for Real), indicating more frequent allowance of dangerous situations. In the last 5 matches both teams have scored 8 goals, but Real has 3 wins and averages 1.8 points per game in that period, while Levante has 2 wins and 1.6 points; additionally Levante fail to score in 36% of away matches versus only 7% of matches without a goal for Real. Considering superior chance creation, higher conversion and favorable home record, I predict a home win.

The "both teams to score" scenario is more likely because Real's seasonal BTTS rate is 60% versus Levante's 43%, with the league average at 56%. In the last 5 matches both teams recorded BTTS in 60% of games, each scoring on average 1.6 goals and conceding 1.4, indicating a current trend of goals from both sides. xG stats show Real generates 1.38 xG versus Levante's 1.11, but both defenses are vulnerable (xG against 1.77 and 1.85) and season tallies are Real 44 scored/45 conceded, Levante 34/48. Clean sheets are also rare — Real 13% at home, Levante 21% away — and the league averages 2.7 goals per match, so the probability of a one-sided shutout is low. On that basis I rate BTTS - Yes at 68% versus 32% for No, because the combination of 60% recent results, high xG against values and low clean sheet percentages constitutes a strong signal.

I recommend the Over market, with the strongest signal at the 1.5 line: Real Sociedad have season Over 1.5 in 87% of matches and Levante in 93%, which strongly indicates at least two goals. I calculated expected xG as the average of home xG_for (1.38) and Levante xG_against (1.85) => 1.62 for Real, and the average of Levante xG_for (1.11) and Real xG_against (1.77) => 1.44 for Levante, totaling 3.06 expected goals, clearly above the 1.5 and 2.5 thresholds. Season Over 2.5 rates are 47% for Real and 43% for Levante (league 51%), but Real’s last 5 matches show 60% Over 2.5, and both teams concede on average 1.73 (Real) and 1.57 (Levante) goals, which pushes the probability of Over 2.5 to around 62%. Both teams have scored 8 goals in their last 5 matches and average 13.27 (Real) and 10.0 (Levante) shots per match, so Over 3.5 is less likely (~30%), hence the recommendation of Over 1.5 as the strongest pick.

The most likely scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a home win (X/1). Real Sociedad have been level at the break in 47% of their matches this season, and in the last five fixtures they led at half-time in 40% of cases, which increases the likelihood of a deadlock at the break. After the interval Real displays better second-half efficiency: across the last five matches they average 0.8 goals in the second half and have scored five goals in minutes 46–60 this season versus Levante’s one goal in the same window. Additionally, Real generate higher xG (1.38 vs 1.11) and more shots (13.27 vs 10.0), supporting a comeback by the home side after half-time. At the same time HT BTTS is low (13% for Real, 7% for Levante) and Levante keep a clean sheet at the break in 64% of matches, which explains the probability of a draw at half-time followed by Real’s eventual victory.