Real Tomayapo vs Real Potosí: match statistics

Real Potosí is the favorite: they sit 9th versus Real Tomayapo’s 16th and have scored 8 goals in the last 5 matches versus the hosts’ 6. The visitors’ main advantage is defense — Potosí conceded only 3 goals in the last 5 matches (0.6 per game) while Tomayapo conceded 10 (2.0 per game). In attack the visitors are also marginally better: 8 goals (1.6 per game) versus 6 goals (1.2 per game) for the hosts. Over the last 5 matches Real Potosí averages 1.6 points per game, Tomayapo 1.2 points per game, with records of 2-2-1 for Potosí and 2-0-3 for Tomayapo. Based on this I predict an away win.

Real Tomayapo have scored 6 goals in their last 5 matches (avg 1.2) and conceded 10 (avg 2.0), while Real Potosí have scored 8 (1.6) and conceded 3 (0.6). With these averages, the probability that the away side will score at least once against Tomayapo’s average conceded goals of 2.0 is very high — around 86%, whereas the hosts against Potosí’s average conceded 0.6 have an estimated ~45% chance to score. Additionally, the league BTTS rate is 42%, and in the last 5 matches Tomayapo’s BTTS was 20% versus 40% for Potosí, which together points slightly toward a match without both teams scoring. Taking into account Tomayapo’s high average conceded (2.0) and the hosts’ low BTTS frequency (20%), I recommend a 'No' (No Goal / clean sheet expected) with a probability split of 61% vs 39% for 'Yes' (BTTS - Yes).

In the last 5 matches Real Tomayapo scored an average of 1.2 goals (6 in 5) and conceded 2.0 on average (10 conceded), while Real Potosí scored 1.6 on average (8 in 5) and conceded 0.6 (3 in 5), yielding a combined average of 2.8 goals per match. The xG model shows a partial divergence: the hosts’ recent xG is 1.39 and the visitors’ is 0.32 (total xG 1.71), so the visitors have a low xG despite a high goals output of 1.6, suggesting variable finishing efficiency. League data confirm a tendency toward goals: the league average is 3.0 goals per match and 57% of matches are over 2.5, although each team had 40% (2 of 5) of matches over 2.5 in their last 5. Based on the mean total of 2.8 goals and assuming a Poisson distribution, the probability of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5) is approximately 77%, Over 2.5 about 53%, and Over 3.5 about 31%. For these reasons the strongest and most reliable tip is Over 1.5 (≈77% vs 23%), especially since the hosts have conceded an average of 2.0 goals in their last 5 matches, which increases the chance of at least two goals in this fixture.

The strongest signal concerns a draw at halftime: the home team has drawingAtHTPercentage_home = 100.0% (they were level at the break in 100% of matches this season), and the away side have last5_drawingAtHTPercentage_overall_away = 100.0% in their last 5 fixtures (5 of 5 level at the break). The full-time result favors a share of the points, since seasonally the home team records drawPercentage_home = 100.0% and seasonCSPercentage_home = 100.0%, meaning they frequently draw and keep clean sheets. On the other hand Real Potosí shows stronger recent offensive metrics: last5_seasonScoredAVG_overall_away = 1.6 goals per game versus 1.2 for the hosts and last5_seasonPPG_overall_away = 1.6 versus 1.2, making the X/2 scenario a significant alternative. Additionally, the hosts generate xG = 1.39 at home with xg_against_avg_home = 0.46 and average 15 shots per game, indicating chance creation with limited finishing, so the most likely outcome is a draw at the break and a draw at full-time (X/X), with draw at half and away win (X/2) as the second-strongest option.