Real Zaragoza vs Mirandés: match statistics

I back the home win (1) because Real Zaragoza have the superior recent run: 10 points from their last five matches (3-1-1), averaging 2.00 PPG, while Mirandés have 5 points (1-2-2), 1.00 PPG. Offensively Zaragoza have scored 7 goals in their last five vs Mirandés’ 5, with home goals per game 0.88 vs the visitors’ 1.13 away, and xG For of 1.28 for the hosts vs 1.12 for Mirandés. Defense is the decisive advantage for the hosts — Real concede 1.31 goals on average at home, while Mirandés concede 1.69 away; mean xG against 1.32 vs 1.92 and 3 goals conceded in the hosts’ last 5 matches vs 8 conceded by the visitors confirm Zaragoza’s greater stability. Additionally the hosts generate more chances (11.69 shots and 3.5 on target per match vs 10.25 shots and 3.31 on target for Mirandés) and have 31% clean sheets at home vs 6% for the away side, giving them control of the game. Based on this I assess probabilities: home 60%, draw 25%, away 15%.

Both teams show high season BTTS rates: Real Zaragoza 59% and Mirandés 63%, vs league average 55%, indicating elevated likelihood of BTTS - Yes. Season goals conceded averages are 1.53 for Zaragoza and 1.69 for Mirandés, with xG against 1.46 and 1.92 respectively, so both sides allow numerous scoring opportunities. In attack Zaragoza posts xG_for 1.50 and 4.59 shots on target from 13.76 shots per match, while Mirandés has xG_for 1.12 and 3.31 shots on target; despite lower conversion for Zaragoza (6% vs 11%) the hosts still create chances. In the last 5 matches Mirandés recorded BTTS in 60% with an average 1.6 goals conceded, and Zaragoza 40% with 0.6 goals conceded, yet low clean sheet expected rates 12% (Zaragoza) and 6% (Mirandés) combined with high share of matches over 2.5 goals (47% and 56%) sustain the both teams to score scenario. Therefore the strongest signal from the data supports BTTS = Yes.

Both teams frequently exceed the 1.5-goal mark: Real Zaragoza has a season rate of matches over 1.5 at 71%, while Mirandés is at 81%. xG analysis shows the home side’s offensive potential at 1.50 xG versus the 1.92 xG average conceded by Mirandés (league average 1.71), while the visitors line up at 1.29 xG (Mirandés 1.12 xG against Zaragoza’s 1.46 xG conceded); after accounting for Zaragoza’s poor finishing this season (0.88 goals per game and a 6% conversion rate) I adjusted expected goals to 1.38 for the home team and 1.23 for the visitors. In the last 5 matches Zaragoza scored 7 and conceded 3, whereas Mirandés scored 5 and conceded 8, indicating better form for the home side and increasing the probability of at least two goals in the match. Season rates for Over 2.5 are 47% (Zaragoza) and 56% (Mirandés) with a league average of 49%, so I rate Over 2.5 moderately higher (53% vs 47%), while Over 3.5 remains less likely (~26%) with seasonal rates of 18%/31%. In summary, the strongest signal from the data is Over 1.5 (82% in my assessment) at the 1.5 line to play, since the expected 2.61 goals in the match clearly exceeds the 1.5 threshold and both teams have high rates of matches over 1.5.

I predict a draw at half-time and a Zaragoza win by full-time (X/1). A draw at the break appears most likely, as Zaragoza has been level at half-time in 47% of their matches this season and in 80% of their last five games (drawingAtHTPercentage_home 47.0, last5_drawingAtHTPercentage_overall_home 80.0). After the interval the hosts are in better form — over the last five matches they averaged 2.0 points per game and won 60% of fixtures (last5_ppg_overall_home 2.0, last5_winPercentage_overall_home 60.0), which increases the probability of a turnaround. Additionally, Real generates more chances: xG 1.50 versus Mirandés 1.12 and on average 4.59 shots on target compared to the visitors’ 3.31 (xg_for_avg_home 1.5 vs xg_for_avg_away 1.12; shotsOnTargetAVG_home 4.59 vs shotsOnTargetAVG_away 3.31), despite Mirandés having a higher shot conversion rate of 11% versus the hosts’ 6%. Mirandés, however, scores and concedes more frequently after the break (scored_2hg_avg_away 0.69 and conceded_2hg_avg_away 1.00), so I expect goals in the second half, but Zaragoza’s xG advantage and form suggest a final victory for the hosts.