Renate vs Pro Vercelli: match statistics

Renate holds a clear advantage in home statistics and league position: they sit 5th in the table, scoring 1.29 goals at home and conceding 1.00 per match, with xG 1.62 versus xG against 1.36 (difference +0.26) and 46 goals scored this season. Pro Vercelli are 14th, scoring 1.12 and conceding 1.71 on the road, with xG 1.32 versus xG against 1.40 (difference -0.08) and 50 goals conceded this season, indicating a weaker defense. Over the last 5 matches Renate have scored 6 and conceded 6 (1 win, 3 draws, 1 loss, 1.2 pts/match), while Pro Vercelli have 5 scored and 8 conceded (1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses, 1.0 pts/match), so form favors the hosts. Additionally, Renate average 13.18 shots and 4.53 on target per home match versus 10.18 shots and 3.82 on target for the visitors; shutout rate is 35% for Renate vs 12% for Pro Vercelli, and matches without scoring 18% vs 29%, which suggests higher offensive efficiency and defensive stability for the hosts. Based on this, I project a Renate win probability of 60%, draw 25% and a Pro Vercelli win 15%.

The last 5 matches show BTTS occurred in 60% of fixtures for both teams, indicating a propensity for goal exchange. Over the season Renate has BTTS at 33% and averages 1.0 goals per game, while Pro Vercelli has BTTS 59%, scores 1.12 goals and concedes 1.71 goals (50 conceded in the season). Renate generates higher xG (1.57 vs 1.32) and attempts more shots (13.44 vs 10.18), but has lower shot conversion 7% versus Pro Vercelli’s 11%, which implies a home creative advantage and greater visiting efficiency. Additionally, Pro Vercelli conceded on average 1.6 goals in the last 5 matches (8 conceded), while Renate conceded 1.2, collectively increasing the likelihood that both teams will score. Taking into account the seasonal divergence (BTTS 33% vs 59%) and the strong form signal (60% in the last 5 for both), I tip BTTS - Yes with a probability of 68% versus 32% for No.

Renate has a season xG of 1.57 while Pro Vercelli concedes on average xG 1.40, yielding roughly 1.49 expected goals for the home side; conversely Pro Vercelli has xG 1.32 and Renate concedes xG 1.29 — about 1.30 expected goals for the visitors, total ≈2.79. This season Renate scores on average 1.00 goal despite xG 1.57 (shot conversion 7%), and Pro Vercelli scores 1.12 goals with xG 1.32 (conversion 11%), so the home side shows some underperformance in finishing. With a total expected goals of 2.79, a Poisson distribution gives probability of over 1.5 (≥2 goals) ≈77%, over 2.5 (≥3) ≈53% and over 3.5 (≥4) ≈31%; these figures correlate with season over-1.5 rates: Renate 67% and Pro Vercelli 82%. Additionally Pro Vercelli had 59% of matches with both teams scoring this season, while Renate had 33%, which boosts the chance of at least two goals; therefore the strongest signal from the data is to play the over on the 1.5 line (Over).

The most likely scenario is a draw at half-time with Renate winning the match (X/1). A half-time draw is justified: the home side are level at the break in 50% of matches, and the visitors have scored 21 goals before half-time compared to Renate’s 14 (an average of 0.59 HT goals for the visitors vs 0.33 for the hosts). In the second half Renate performs better — they average 1.39 points in second halves versus 0.88 points for Pro Vercelli and win 33% of second halves compared to the visitors’ 24%, which favors turnarounds after the break. Additionally, Renate generate higher xG (1.57 vs 1.32) and the visitors concede on average 1.71 goals per match while the hosts concede 1.17, increasing Renate’s chance of victory after a half-time draw. On that basis I assign X/1 the highest probability at 25%, with significant alternatives X/X at 18% and 1/1 at 15%.