Resistencia vs Sol de América: match statistics

I back a Resistencia win (1): the hosts create more chances than the visitors — on average 9 shots and 3 on target per home match versus 5 shots and 1 on target away for Sol de América. Resistencia averages 0.5 goals per home match with xG 1.34 and despite 0% home wins shows better attacking quality than the visitors, who have 0 goals away, xG 0.91 and 100% of away matches without scoring. Defensively the hosts concede 1.5 goals at home and allow 1.41 opponent xG, while Sol de América officially concedes 1.0 goals away, but their xG against 1.53 suggests they permit more dangerous situations. In the last 5 matches Resistencia averages 1.2 points per game and has scored 4 goals, whereas Sol de América averages 0.6 points per game and only 2 goals in that period, which confirms the home advantage. Considering the xG ratio (1.34 vs 0.91), shot count (9 vs 5) and the fact the visitors have yet to score away, I estimate probabilities of 60% for the hosts, 25% for a draw and 15% for the visitors.

Resistencia as the home side has a seasonal BTTS of 67%, xG 1.52 and an average of 3.0 shots on target, while Sol de América shows a seasonal BTTS of 0%, seasonal goals per game 0.0, only 1.0 shot on target and a conversion rate of 0%, indicating serious finishing issues. In the last 5 matches the teams' xG is similar (1.34 vs 1.28), but actual goals per game are 0.8 for the hosts and 0.4 for the visitors, meaning the visitors are not converting their created xG into goals. Additionally, the league has a high clean sheet rate (68%) and a relatively low BTTS share (41%), which increases the likelihood that at least one team will keep a clean sheet. Considering Resistencia’s stronger attacking profile (xG 1.52, 3.0 shots on target) versus Sol de América’s zero conversion, the more likely scenario is that only one team scores, therefore I assign BTTS - No 65% and BTTS - Yes 35%.

The xG model points to total potential goal activity of around 2.59 (home average xG 1.52 and average defensive strength of opponents gives ~1.53 for Resistencia; for Sol de América similarly ~1.07). However, actual goals are markedly lower — season averages are 0.67 (Resistencia) and 0.0 (Sol de América), and in the last 5 matches the teams scored on average 0.8 and 0.4 goals. After adjusting conversion based on the goals-to-xG ratio in the last 5 matches (Resistencia 0.8/1.34≈0.60, Sol 0.4/1.28≈0.31) we get expected ~0.90 for the home side and ~0.35 for the away side, totaling ≈1.25 goals. The home side creates more chances (12 shots and 3 on target vs 5 and 1 for the visitors) but has a low conversion rate of 6% (for the visitors practically 0%), which weakens the xG signal into actual goals. As a result the strongest signal from the data is under 2.5 (estimated probability of under ≈87%), under 3.5 ≈96% and a relatively low chance of over 1.5 (~36%), therefore I recommend backing under 2.5.

The strongest signal is the high proportion of draws at the break: both Resistencia and Sol de América were level at half-time in 100.0% of their matches, with Resistencia averaging 0.33 goals by HT and Sol de América 0.0, which strongly argues for a draw at half-time (most often 0:0). In the second half the hosts are superior: xG 1.52 versus 0.91, on average 12.0 shots versus 5.0 and 3.0 shots on target versus 1.0, and a conversion rate of 6.0% versus 0.0% increases the likelihood that Resistencia will break the deadlock after the break. Additionally Resistencia has earned 3 points in second halves (an average of 1.0 point per match in the second half), while Sol de América has a season average of 0.0 goals and 0% wins in the last 5 matches, so the visitors have little chance of mounting a comeback. As a result the most likely scenario is a Half-Time draw and a home win at Full-Time (X/1 — 34%), the second most likely is a Half-Time draw and a Full-Time draw (X/X — 22%), and I assign lower probability to scenarios with the home team leading at the break (1/1 — 14%) or surprise away outcomes (2/* — totalling 15%).