Rēzekne / BJSS vs Mārupe: match statistics

Mārupe has a clear advantage this season: they have scored 22 goals and sit 6th, while Rēzekne / BJSS have only 10 goals and are 14th. The visitors’ defense is markedly better — the home side concedes 2.86 goals per home match, whereas Mārupe concedes only 0.83 on the road; visitors have 50% clean sheets away, hosts 0% at home. Quality of chances also favors Mārupe: average xG away is 1.46 versus 0.88 xG for the hosts at home, and the visitors average 10.33 shots (4.83 on target) per game compared to Rēzekne’s 4.75 (3.5 on target). In the last 5 matches the hosts have just 0.2 points per game, 0 wins and have conceded 11 goals, while Mārupe has 1.2 points per game, 2 wins and scored 6 goals. Considering the defensive advantage (0.83 vs 2.86), higher xG (1.46 vs 0.88) and greater shot volume (10.33 vs 4.75), I predict an away win for Mārupe.

The league posts BTTS at 60% with an average of 3.43 goals per game, favoring matches with goals at both ends. Rēzekne has a seasonal BTTS rate of 57% and averages 2.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per match, while Mārupe records BTTS 33% with averages of 1.33 scored and 0.83 conceded. In the last 5 matches Rēzekne had BTTS 60% and conceded 2.2 goals on average (11 conceded in 5), and Mārupe had BTTS 40% and conceded 2.0 on average (10 conceded), which increases the likelihood of both teams scoring. xG and shot statistics are similar (xG 1.47 vs 1.46, avg. 10.5 vs 10.33 shots), and the home side shows higher finishing efficiency 21% vs 13%, so both sides are creating realistic chances. Considering the league’s 60% BTTS, the home side’s 100% Over2.5, and recent high goals conceded in the last 5, I select BTTS - Yes as the more probable outcome (70% vs 30%).

The combined xG for both teams is 1.47 + 1.46 = 2.93, placing the match close to the 2.5 goals threshold and slightly below the league average of 3.43 goals per game. Rēzekne/BJSS records 100% of matches over 2.5 goals this season, while Mārupe has 50% — a strong signal in favor of Over 2.5, especially given the league-wide 68% Over 2.5 rate. The home side averages 10.5 shots with 4.67 on target and a 21% conversion rate; the visitors average 10.33 shots with 4.83 on target and a 13% conversion. Rēzekne’s superior finishing increases the likelihood that their 1.47 xG will convert into goals. Although Rēzekne have averaged only 0.8 goals and conceded 11 goals in their last five matches, the season-long home Over 2.5 rate (100%) and BTTS 57% indicate a high probability of goals from both sides. Based on this, I recommend the Over side on the 2.5 line as the best bet: combined xG 2.93, home season Over2.5 100% and league average 3.43 form the strongest and most value-driven signal.

Based on half-time statistics, the away team is more likely to hold the lead at the break: hosts were behind at half-time in 57% of matches and concede an average of 0.86 goals in the first half, whereas the away side concedes only 0.17 goals in that phase and keep a clean sheet at half-time in 83% of games. By full-time the away advantage remains visible: they have 50% wins this season versus 43% for the hosts and concede on average 0.83 goals over the season compared with 2.0 for the hosts, suggesting they will maintain the lead obtained by half-time. On the other hand the hosts score heavily after the break — averaging 1.57 goals in the second half and with 100% of their matches featuring at least one goal after half-time — so a turnaround (2/1 or X/1) is a realistic possibility. Given that the xG of both teams is practically equal (1.47 vs 1.46), the most likely scenario is the away team leading at half-time and holding the win to full-time (2/2), with the chance of the hosts overturning the deficit in the second half.