Richmond Kickers vs NY Cosmos: match statistics

Richmond Kickers hold a slight edge, primarily due to home advantage: they have won 29% of their home matches, while NY Cosmos have lost every away game and concede an average of as many as 3.00 goals on the road. The hosts have also been far from clinical, scoring 0.71 goals per match at home and failing to score in 57% of their appearances, but Cosmos’ away defence, with no clean sheets on the road, gives them a good opportunity to break through. Richmond allow 1.60 xG at home, while the visitors generate 1.40 xG away from home, so Cosmos should create chances; however, their average of 0.88 goals scored limits their chances of taking all three points. The teams’ last five matches do not suggest strong attacking form, with Richmond scoring only 2 goals and Cosmos 3, reinforcing the scenario of a narrow home win. The difference in Cosmos’ away defensive record, with a -17 goal difference on the road, shifts the prediction towards Richmond Kickers.

There is a slight edge towards BTTS - Yes, as the seasonal BTTS rates for both teams stand at 56% for Richmond and as high as 75% for NY Cosmos, compared with the league average of 55%. Richmond should have a good chance of scoring: their opponents have kept no clean sheets, concede an average of 3.00 goals per match, while the hosts generate an average of 1.56 xG. Cosmos’ chances of finding the net are supported by Richmond’s defensive record, with the team allowing an average of 1.56 goals and 1.55 xG, while conceding 9 goals in their last five matches, or 1.8 per game. The main risk to the pick is poor recent finishing, as Richmond have scored 2 goals and Cosmos 3 in their last five matches, with BTTS landing in only 20% and 40% of those games respectively. Therefore, the edge towards a both-teams-to-score scenario is limited.

The strongest signal is Over 1.5 goals, as Richmond matches have exceeded this line in 78% of cases, while NY Cosmos matches have done so in as many as 100%. The hosts create an average of 1.56 xG, whereas Cosmos allow opponents 1.81 xG and concede a very high 3.00 goals per match. Richmond should be able to exploit this weakness, although their recent finishing has been limited to 0.4 goals per game across their last five matches. The visitors have also scored only 0.6 goals per game recently, which reduces confidence in Over 2.5 goals, but Richmond's defense concedes an average of 1.56 goals per match over the season and 1.8 across their last five appearances. The projected total of 2.65 goals indicates a clear advantage toward at least two goals, with more moderate risk on the higher lines.

The strongest HT signal points to a draw: Richmond were level at half-time in 67% of their matches, compared with 25% for NY Cosmos, while the visitors had drawn at the break in four of their last five games. Both teams start matches very poorly, averaging just 0.33 and 0.13 goals respectively before half-time, and neither side has scored in the first half in their last five appearances. After the break, the advantage should shift towards the hosts, who have won the second half in 44% of matches, compared with just 13% for Cosmos, while their opponents concede an average of 1.38 goals during that period. Across the season, NY Cosmos have not won a single match and have conceded an average of 3.00 goals, whereas Richmond average 1.22 points per home game. The hosts’ weaker recent attacking output, averaging only 0.4 goals over their last five matches, reduces confidence, but the HT/FT scenario of a draw at half-time and a Richmond win at full-time remains the most likely outcome.