Richmond Kickers vs Union Omaha: match statistics

Union Omaha is the clear favorite: they sit 3rd in the table versus Richmond in 17th, with 4 wins and 1 loss in the season compared to Richmond’s 0 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses. The form gap is significant — Omaha have won 4 of their last 5 matches (PPG 2.4), while Richmond have 1 win and 4 losses in their last 5 (PPG 0.6). Offensively Richmond have only 2 goals this season and average 0 goals per home match (FTS 100%), whereas Omaha have scored 9 goals this season and average 1.5 goals on the road with a shot conversion of 14%. In terms of control Omaha average 52% possession away versus Richmond’s 37% at home, and average xG is 1.35 for Omaha away and 1.21 for Richmond at home; additionally Richmond have conceded 8 goals in their last 5 matches while Omaha have scored 8 in the same period. Considering Richmond’s 100% home loss rate, 0% home scoring rate and Omaha’s advantages in form and conversion, I predict an away win.

Seasonal metrics indicate a moderately high probability for BTTS - Yes: Richmond averages 2.0 goals per match with xG 1.78, while Union Omaha average 1.5 goals with xG 1.35. Seasonal BTTS rates are 67% for Richmond and 50% for Omaha. Defensively Union Omaha have no clean sheets this season (0%), and Richmond concede 1.0 goals on average with xG against 1.01, increasing the likelihood that the visitors will score. In the last 5 matches the picture is mixed: Richmond have scored only 0.4 goals per match and had BTTS in 20% of fixtures, whereas Omaha score 1.6 goals per match, totaling 8 goals and a 60% BTTS rate, favoring at least one away goal. Additionally the xG matchup confirms both teams’ potential — Richmond xG_for 1.78 vs Omaha xG_against 1.74 and Omaha xG_for 1.35 vs Richmond xG_against 1.01 — and the league-level BTTS is 56%, so offensive signals prevail. Considering these figures and Omaha’s lack of clean sheets, I assess the probability of Both Teams To Score at 66% versus 34% for No Goal and recommend a wager on BTTS - Yes.

The xG-and-defensive-stat model yields expected goals of 1.76 for Richmond Kickers and 1.18 for Union Omaha, totaling 2.94. I calculated these as the average of each side’s attack and the opponent’s defense: (1.78 + 1.74)/2 = 1.76 for the home side and (1.35 + 1.01)/2 = 1.18 for the away side. With a total λ = 2.94, the Poisson distribution gives probability of 0 goals ≈ 5.3% and 1 goal ≈ 15.5%, translating to roughly a 79% chance of Over 1.5 goals; Over 2.5 ≈ 56%; Over 3.5 ≈ 34%. Additionally, seasonal goal averages of 2.0 for the home team and 1.5 for the away team sum to 3.5, the home side averages 5.67 shots on target versus 3.5 for the visitors, and BTTS is 67% for Richmond and 50% for Union, reinforcing a goal-rich scenario. Based on this I recommend Over 1.5 as the strongest signal (79%) due to its clear probability edge; Over 2.5 (56%) is a moderate option, while Over 3.5 (34%) is too risky.

Seasonal statistics indicate an advantage for Richmond: the home side has a 100% win rate this season and scores an average of 2.0 goals per game, compared to Union Omaha’s 1.5. In first halves Richmond draws more often (67% of matches are level at the break vs 33% with Richmond leading), whereas Union Omaha led at half-time in 50% of their matches, signaling a likelihood of a draw at the break. Richmond is, however, stronger after the break — they average 1.33 goals in second halves and have scored in 100% of matches after half-time, while Union Omaha average only 0.5 goals in second halves. The hosts create more chances: on average 15.33 shots and 5.67 on target versus 11.0 and 3.5 for the visitors; they also have a higher xG of 1.78 versus 1.35, and the visitors concede an xG against of 1.74, which favors Richmond scoring. For these reasons the most probable scenario is a draw at half-time and a Richmond win by full-time (X/1), so this outcome is assigned the highest probability.