Ried vs Blau-Weiß Linz: match statistics

Ried are the favorites: at home they average 1.36 goals per match and have a 50% home win rate, while Blau-Weiß Linz average only 0.57 goals on the road and win there in roughly 7% of fixtures. The hosts create better chances – 13.21 average shots and 3.86 shots on target per home match with a 10% conversion, versus the visitors who record 11.14 shots, 3.29 on target and only 5% conversion away. Defensively the hosts also perform better: Ried concede 1.21 goals per home match (xG against 1.20), while Blau-Weiß concede 1.64 goals on the road (xG against 1.36), and Blau-Weiß’s goal difference away is as bad as -15. However, the visitors have clear recent momentum – in their last 5 matches they have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss, scoring 12 goals and averaging 2.0 points per match, whereas Ried over the same period have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss with 6 goals and 1.6 points per match. Considering Ried’s home stability (29% of home matches scoreless for opponents and 29% clean sheets) and Blau-Weiß’s away frailties (50% of away matches without scoring and only 14% clean sheets), I assess the probabilities as: home 65%, draw 20%, away 15%.

Ried scores an average of 1.87 goals at home, while Blau-Weiß Linz has only 0.57 goals away; Ried concedes 1.33 at home, and Blau-Weiß Linz concedes 1.64 away. In xG metrics Ried generates 1.49 xG at home, and Blau-Weiß Linz has 1.23 xG on the road; opposing xG of 1.21 and 1.36 indicate both teams theoretically create around 1.2–1.5 goal-scoring chances per match. Seasonal BTTS rates are 40% for Ried and 43% for Blau-Weiß Linz, meaning both teams have a lower frequency of Goal/Goal than the league average of 56%. In the last 5 matches Ried recorded BTTS in 60% (6 goals scored and 5 conceded), whereas Blau-Weiß Linz had only 20% BTTS but scored 12 and conceded 2 (averages 2.4 and 0.4). Given Blau-Weiß’s low away average of 0.57 goals and shot conversion of 5% and seasonal BTTS of 40–43% below the league 56%, the stronger signal is No Goal. I therefore assess 60% for 'No' and 40% for 'BTTS - Yes'.

The model projects approximately 2.65 total goals in the match (1.43 for Ried vs 1.22 for Blau-Weiß Linz), calculated based on xG: Ried xG_for 1.49 versus Blau-Weiß Linz xG_against 1.36. Ried score an average of 1.87 goals at home and 80% of their home games finish over 1.5 goals, while Blau-Weiß Linz have 64% of away matches over 1.5, which increases the probability of at least two goals. In the last 5 matches Blau-Weiß Linz have scored 12 goals (avg. 2.4) and Ried 6 goals (avg. 1.2), further indicating a tendency toward higher-scoring games. A Poisson distribution with mean 2.65 yields roughly a 74% chance for Over 1.5, Over 2.5 is balanced (~49%) and Over 3.5 has low probability (~28%), therefore I recommend backing Over 1.5 as the strongest signal from the data.

Ried has a clear seasonal advantage: they average 1.87 goals per game versus Blau-Weiß Linz’s 0.57, have higher xG (1.49 vs 1.23) and take more shots (13.93 vs 11.14) including more shots on target (4.13 vs 3.29). At Half-Time the hosts are far more threatening — average goals before the break 0.73 vs 0.14, and Ried led at the break in 33% of matches versus 0% for the visitors, which supports a lead at the break. In the second half Ried also score more often (1.13 vs 0.43) and have a higher average second-half goal tally (1.73 vs 1.29), so maintaining or extending the lead is likely. Additionally Ried collect an average 1.47 points per match versus 0.43 for Blau-Weiß Linz and have a shot conversion rate of 13% compared to the visitors’ 5%, therefore the strongest HT/FT selection is 1/1, with less likely scenarios being X/1 or X/X.