Ried vs Rheindorf Altach: match statistics

A draw appears most likely: Rheindorf Altach sit 8th versus Ried 9th and show markedly better form over the last five matches (2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss), averaging 1.6 points per game, while Ried have 1 win and 4 losses with an average of 0.6 points per game. Ried do, however, possess home attacking superiority — averaging 13 shots per game and 3.58 on target, xG 1.44 and 1.17 goals scored per match, compared to Altach away: 9.42 shots, 2.42 on target, xG 1.04 and 0.75 goals. Concerning for Ried is recent goals conceded: 10 conceded in their last 5 matches (2.0 per game), whereas Altach have conceded 5 (1.0 per game), despite both teams conceding on average 1.17 goals per home/away match. Additionally, Altach record higher away possession (54% vs 49%), but a high percentage of away clean sheets (58%) increases the probability of a draw. Considering Altach’s better form and more stable defense versus Ried’s superior home chance creation, I predict a share of the points.

Ried scores on average 1.42 goals per match and has a seasonal BTTS rate of 67%, with BTTS in the last 5 matches at 80%, indicating a strong home trend toward Goal/Goal. Rheindorf Altach averages 0.75 goals this season and failed to score in 58% of games, with a seasonal BTTS rate of only 25%, which significantly lowers the overall chance of BTTS. However, in the short term Altach has scored 6 goals in the last 5 matches (1.2 per match), while Ried conceded 10 goals in those 5 fixtures (2.0 per match), and recent xG shows 1.08 xG for Altach versus 1.53 xG generated by Ried’s opponents, increasing the probability of an away goal. Additionally Ried has seasonal xG_for 1.3, and Altach concedes around 1.4 xG (1.3 vs 1.4), while Altach’s lower average shots on target 2.42 and a conversion rate of 8% limit their consistency; overall this yields an advantage to the YES (60%) scenario over NO (40%), hence the pick: BTTS - Yes.

Based on xG I estimate about 1.35 xG for Ried ((1.3+1.4)/2=1.35) and 1.15 xG for Rheindorf Altach ((1.04+1.25)/2=1.15), totaling 2.50 expected goals. Seasonally Ried has 75% of home matches >1.5, and Altach 58% of away matches >1.5; assuming independence this implies roughly an 89.5% chance of Over 1.5 (1-0.25*0.42≈0.895). For the 2.5 line both teams have 33% of seasonal matches >2.5, which in a simple model yields ~55% chance of Over 2.5 (1-0.67*0.67≈0.551), while the 3.5 line looks weaker (~38%). Additionally Ried averages 11.42 shots and 3.75 shots on target per match with a 12% conversion, versus Altach’s 9.42 shots, 2.42 shots on target and 8% conversion, which increases the probability of home goals. Therefore the strongest and most justified market is Over 1.5; Over 2.5 is moderately likely, and Over 3.5 appears risky.

Ried led at the break in 42% of their matches this season, while Rheindorf Altach did so in only 8%; averaging these profiles I forecast approximately a 33% chance of the home side leading at half-time, about 59% for a half-time draw and 8% for the away side leading. At half-time Ried averages 0.67 goals and Altach 0.42, with xG of 1.30 versus 1.04, indicating a moderate home advantage but not clear dominance before the break. In the second half I observe a strong tendency for the scoreline to be maintained — hosts draw the second half in 57% of cases, visitors in 50% — and at Ried’s ground the final distribution is 50% home wins, 42% draws and 8% losses. As a result, the strongest signal from the data is a half-time draw and full-time draw (X/X) and I assign that scenario a 30% probability as the most consistent with the numbers; alternatives are 1/1 (27%) and X/1 (23%).