Riga FC II vs JFK Ventspils: match statistics

Riga FC II are favorites due to superior form — 2 wins in their last 5 matches and 1.4 points per game in that period, while JFK Ventspils have no wins in five and only 0.6 points per game. The home side score on average 1.5 goals at home with 8 shots on target and xG 1.78, whereas the visitors average 2.0 goals away with a higher conversion rate of 23% and xG 1.96, indicating greater efficiency on similar shot volume (13). Defensively both teams are prone to conceding — Riga concedes 2.0 goals per game at home, Ventspils as many as 3.0 away, both sides have 0% clean sheets, and the last 5 matches show 9 scored and 8 conceded (Riga) versus 7 and 9 (Ventspils). Considering 50% home wins for Riga versus 0% away wins for Ventspils, plus the form advantage and stronger home xG, I predict a home win.

The signal for BTTS - Yes is strong: the away team has a seasonal BTTS rate of 100% with 0% clean sheets, the league BTTS rate is 59%, and the home team has 50% BTTS. Both sides regularly concede — seasonally the home team concedes 1.5 goals, the away team 3.0, and in the last 5 matches respectively 1.6 and 1.8 goals per match. The away attack looks aggressive: away xG_for is 1.96 versus the home 1.21, average shots 13 versus 6 and shots on target 7 versus 3, which increases the likelihood that the home side will concede at least once. However, the hosts can score — in the last 5 matches they have 9 goals (1.8 per match) versus the away side's 7 (1.4) — so both teams have scoring potential. Considering 0% clean sheets for both teams and high average goals conceded, I assign 80% probability to Yes and 20% to No as the most justified forecast.

The model combines team xG and opponent defense: expected goals are 1.49 for Riga FC II (calculated as (1.21 + 1.77)/2) and 1.64 for JFK Ventspils (calculated as (1.96 + 1.31)/2), total 3.13. JFK Ventspils averages 2.0 goals scored per match (xG 1.96) and concedes as many as 3.0, while Riga FC II scores 1.0 and concedes 1.5; additionally the visitors average 13 shots and 7 on target with a 23% conversion rate, which generates many scoring opportunities. League average goals per match is 3.48, and in the last 5 fixtures Riga registered 9 goals (1.8 per match) and conceded 8 (1.6), Ventspils had 7 goals (1.4) and conceded 9 (1.8); the hosts’ last 5 matches produced Over 2.5 in 80% of cases, the visitors in 60%. Season-long indicators confirm an offensive profile: visitors have 100% of matches with BTTS and 100% of matches Over 2.5 (season data), hosts have Over 2.5 in 50% of matches, which together increases the likelihood of more goals. Based on this I recommend the Over side on the 2.5 line as the strongest signal: I estimate Over 2.5 at 75% vs Under 25% (for reference Over 1.5 85%, Over 3.5 around 40%).

Statistics clearly favor the visitors: visitors’ xG is 1.96 versus 1.21 for the hosts, average shots 13.0 vs 6.0 and shots on target 7.0 vs 3.0, indicating a clear offensive advantage for JFK Ventspils. The visitors average 2.0 goals per match compared to 1.0 for Riga FC II and have a higher conversion rate (23% vs 17%), which increases the likelihood of a final win for the visitors. At half-time the hosts concede an average of 1.5 goals (concededAVGHT_home 1.5) while the visitors concede 0.5 (concededAVGHT_away 0.5); seasonal data show the hosts were trailing at the break in 100.0% of cases (trailingAtHTPercentage_home 100.0), whereas the visitors led at half-time in 50.0% of matches (leadingAtHTPercentage_away 50.0). In the second half the visitors’ dominance is even more pronounced — AVG_2hg_away is 4.0 versus 0.5 for the hosts, and the visitors score an average of 1.5 goals after the break (scored_2hg_avg_away 1.5), which supports maintaining or extending the lead. Based on this, the most likely scenario is the visitors leading at half-time and winning the match (HT/FT 2/2).