Rizespor vs Alanyaspor: match statistics

Rizespor should dictate play more often at home, where they average 60% possession, 28 shots and a very high xG of 2.92 per match, while Alanyaspor create just 0.89 xG away from home. However, the hosts’ key issue is finishing: despite averaging eight shots on target per game, they have yet to score at home and lost their only match in this setting 0:2. Alanyaspor have also failed to win away, but have taken points from both such fixtures, drawing 50% of them, while averaging 1 goal at an 11% conversion rate. Rizespor’s defense restricts opponents to just 0.68 xG, yet concedes 2 goals on average, highlighting problems in converting their advantage in chance quality at both ends of the pitch. Both teams have identical records of 1.4 points per game across their last five appearances, making a closely fought draw the most likely outcome, although the hosts have slightly greater potential to break through.

The signal for both teams to score is strengthened by their current form: in the last 5 matches, BTTS occurred in 60% of Rizespor’s games and as many as 80% of Alanyaspor’s. During this period, the hosts averaged 1.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, while the visitors scored 1.4 and allowed their opponents 1.2 goals on average. Rizespor created particularly many high-quality chances, recording an average xG of 2.00 across their five most recent matches, while Alanyaspor allowed opponents an xG of 1.53. On the other hand, the visitors’ attack has been limited according to season data, with an average xG of 0.89 and 2 shots on target per match, so the risk of them failing to score remains noticeable. Nevertheless, neither team has recorded a match without scoring, and their recent defensive results provide clearer support for a scenario in which both sides find the net.

The latest results of both teams point to a goals-based game: in their last five matches, Rizespor averaged 1.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, while Alanyaspor scored 1.4 and conceded 1.2. During this period, the 2.5-goal line was exceeded in 60% of matches for each team, while both teams scored in 60% of Rizespor’s games and as many as 80% of Alanyaspor’s. Rizespor recently created chances worth an average of 2.00 xG, clearly above the 1.25 xG allowed by their defense, while Alanyaspor allowed opponents 1.53 xG per match. The combined projection of 2.75 goals provides a positive edge on Over 1.5, as even with less efficient finishing, two goals remain the most likely scenario. Over 2.5 also receives slight support, although its edge is smaller due to the limited sample of current-season data.

Rizespor have won 100% of their home matches so far, conceding an average of 0.0 goals and keeping a clean sheet in every game, while Alanyaspor are yet to win away from home and have conceded an average of 1.5 goals. At half-time, the hosts were level in all of their home matches to date, making the draw at the break followed by a home win at full-time a highly realistic alternative. However, the strongest signal for 1/1 comes from the second half: Rizespor score an average of 1.0 goals after the break and concede none, while Alanyaspor fail to score in the second half and concede an average of 1.0 goal. In their last five matches, Alanyaspor were leading at the break in 60% of cases, but their full-time record consisted of just 2 wins and 2 defeats, which limits the significance of this trend. The hosts also hold an advantage in the quality of chances created, with an average xG of 1.03 compared with the opponents’ 0.89, making a Rizespor lead at half-time and a win at full-time the most likely scenario.