Rochdale vs Carlisle United: match statistics
Rochdale stands as the clear favorite for this match, sitting top of the table and showing impressive form with five consecutive victories. The hosts boast a phenomenal home record – an 85% win rate at their ground, averaging 2.23 goals scored and just 0.62 goals conceded per match, resulting in a +21 goal difference. Carlisle United, despite being third in the league, shows weaker recent form over their last five matches (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses) and has a significantly poorer away record – a 62% win rate, but conceding an average of 1.23 goals per game. xG statistics also favor the hosts (1.8 vs 1.65), and their dominance in possession (58% vs 50%) and shot conversion rate (16% vs 11%) further strengthen their position. Taking all factors into account, Rochdale holds a distinct advantage, although Carlisle's experience in away matches and their solid points tally this season mean a surprise result or a draw cannot be entirely ruled out.
Rochdale vs Carlisle United: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
Rochdale played against Carlisle United in National League (England). The game was played on February 7, 2026. Final score: 1:0.
Recent form
Rochdale has 5 wins, 0 draws and 0 losses over its last five games, averaging 3.00 points per game. Carlisle United has 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss, with 2.00 points per game.
Scoring records
Rochdale scores 1.96 goals per game and allows 0.67. Carlisle United scores 1.79 and allows 1.17. Games in this league average 2.84 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 44% of Rochdale's games and 48% of Carlisle United's. The Over 2.5 rates are 56% and 55%, compared with league averages of 55% for BTTS and 54% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
Carlisle United has the higher season xG average, 1.91 to 1.69 per game. Rochdale takes 13.0 shots per game, while Carlisle United takes 15.4.
First-half and second-half trends
Rochdale leads at halftime in 56% of its games and scores 0.93 goals per game after halftime. Carlisle United leads at halftime in 45% and scores 1.00 after halftime.
When the teams score
Rochdale's most productive scoring window is minutes 31-45+ (14 goals). For Carlisle United, it is minutes 76-90+ (12 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
National League games average 2.84 goals. Both teams score in 55% of games, and 54% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
Before this game, one previous meeting was available. The record was 1 home win, 0 draws and 0 away wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 0% of them.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Rochdale stands as the clear favorite for this match, sitting top of the table and showing impressive form with five consecutive victories. The hosts boast a phenomenal home record – an 85% win rate at their ground, averaging 2.23 goals scored and just 0.62 goals conceded per match, resulting in a +21 goal difference. Carlisle United, despite being third in the league, shows weaker recent form over their last five matches (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses) and has a significantly poorer away record – a 62% win rate, but conceding an average of 1.23 goals per game. xG statistics also favor the hosts (1.8 vs 1.65), and their dominance in possession (58% vs 50%) and shot conversion rate (16% vs 11%) further strengthen their position. Taking all factors into account, Rochdale holds a distinct advantage, although Carlisle's experience in away matches and their solid points tally this season mean a surprise result or a draw cannot be entirely ruled out.
View the statistical overviewStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| Rochdale | Carlisle United | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 44% | 41% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.34 | 0.28 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
Rochdale is 50% better for: last-5 form.
3 pts / game - Rochdale · 2 pts / game - Carlisle United
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Rochdale is 9% better for: goals scored per game.
1.96 goals / game - Rochdale · 1.79 goals / game - Carlisle United
Rochdale is 75% better for: goals allowed per game.
0.67 goals / game - Rochdale · 1.17 goals / game - Carlisle United
Rochdale scores in 96% of games (26 of 27 meczów), while Carlisle United keeps a clean sheet in 38% (11 of 29 meczów).
Carlisle United scores in 86% of games (25 of 29 meczów), while Rochdale keeps a clean sheet in 56% (15 of 27 meczów).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Rochdale
Over / Under - Carlisle United
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Rochdale is 23% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
2 pts / game - Rochdale · 1.62 pts / game - Carlisle United
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Rochdale - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 56% of games and wins 81%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Allows 0.1 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
Carlisle United - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 45% of games and wins 62%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Defense stays consistent across the full game.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 2.20 | 2.60 |
| Goals scored / game | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Average goals per game | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 80% |
| No goal | 20% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +5 | +4 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / game | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Average goals per game | 1.8 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 20% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +3 | -1 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (14 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): +5 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (12 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): +4 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
Rochdale
Carlisle United
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (National League).
Teams vs league
| Rochdale | Liga | Carlisle United | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | ▼ 2.63 | 2.84 | ▲ 2.97 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 44% | 55% | ▼ 48% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 56% | 54% | • 55% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 56% | 25% | ▲ 38% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 78% | 72% | ▲ 76% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 78% | 80% | • 79% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Record from Rochdale's perspective: 1 win, 0 draws and 0 losses against Carlisle United. Games average 2.00 goals, and both teams scored in 0% of them.
FAQ
What was the result of Rochdale vs Carlisle United?
The National League match finished Rochdale 1:0 Carlisle United. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Rochdale vs Carlisle United?
Rochdale score 1.96 goals per game on average and Carlisle United 1.79. The National League average is 2.84 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 54% of games. Both teams score in 44% of Rochdale's matches and 48% of Carlisle United's.
What form are Rochdale and Carlisle United in?
Over the last 5 games Rochdale have a 5-0-0 record (3.00 points per game) and Carlisle United 3-1-1 (2.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Rochdale vs Carlisle United?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Rochdale vs Carlisle United: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.