Rosenborg vs Brann: match statistics

I back the away win (’2’) because their attack has a clear statistical edge: Brann averages 3.0 goals away, 6.33 shots on target per match and a 21% conversion, while Rosenborg at home averages 1.0 goals, 3.5 SoT and an 8% conversion. The gap is reflected in aggregate figures — Brann has 10 goals away (10 in the last 5 matches) versus Rosenborg’s 2 at home (2 in the last 5), with Rosenborg failing to score in 50% of home games while Brann has no scoreless away games (FTS 0%). Defensively Rosenborg is better (1.5 goals conceded at home and xG against 1.43) than Brann away (2.33 conceded and xG against 1.8), but both teams have 0% clean sheets and Brann’s away fixtures feature high scoring (avg 5.33 goals per match). Form supports the away side: Brann collects 1.2 points per match in the last 5 and has won 2 of 5, whereas Rosenborg has 0.8 PPG and 1 win in five (Rosenborg form: lllwd; Brann: lwllw). Considering Brann’s superiority in SoT (6.33 vs 3.5), efficiency (21% vs 8%) and goals (3.0 vs 1.0), I assign a 55% probability to a Brann win, 25% to Rosenborg and 20% to a draw.

Brann shows a very strong BTTS signal — 100% on the season and 80% in the last 5 matches, while Rosenborg has 50% on the season and just 20% in the last 5. Offensively Brann averages 3.0 goals per game this season (2.0 in last 5), and Rosenborg only 0.5 seasonally (0.4 in last 5), yet Rosenborg concedes 1.5 goals on average this season (1.4 in last 5) and Brann concedes 2.33 seasonally (1.6 in last 5) — both sides therefore tend to concede goals. xG analysis shows Rosenborg generates 1.78 xG at home, while Brann as the away side allows around 1.8 xG; Brann also has xG_for 1.68, a higher shot conversion 21% vs 3% for Rosenborg and more shots on target 6.33 vs 3.5, which together indicate realistic scoring opportunities from both teams. Additionally both teams have seasonCSPercentage 0% (no clean sheets), and the league average BTTS is 49%, making the team signals (100% for Brann, 50% for Rosenborg) dominate the league mean. On this basis I recommend BTTS = Yes with an 80% probability vs 20% for No.

I calculated expected goals from xG: Rosenborg has xG for 1.78 versus Brann xG against 1.80, yielding ~1.79 goals for the home side; Brann has xG for 1.68 versus Rosenborg xG against 1.40, yielding ~1.54 goals for the away side; total = 3.33. A Poisson model on a total of 3.33 translates to roughly an 85% chance of Over 1.5 goals, about 65% for Over 2.5 goals and around 43% for Over 3.5 goals. Shooting stats confirm Brann’s offensive pressure: 3.0 average goals per game and 6.33 SOT against Rosenborg (0.5 average goals and 3.5 SOT), and in the last 5 matches Brann scored 10 goals versus Rosenborg’s 2. Rosenborg generates high xG (1.78) with a very low conversion rate of 3% (vs 21% for Brann), indicating potential for an increase in goals; therefore the strongest signal from the data is Over 2.5 (back the Over).

Statistics indicate a clear advantage for Brann in finishing and scoring ability: the visitors average 3.0 goals per match with a 21% conversion rate and 6.33 shots on target, while Rosenborg have only 0.5 goals per match, 3% conversion and 3.5 shots on target. At Half-Time Brann also scores more frequently — 7 first-half goals (1.33 per match) versus Rosenborg’s 3 (0.5), and Rosenborg have never led at the break this season (0% lead at the break), which reduces the likelihood of scenarios where the home side leads at Half-Time. Additionally, Rosenborg concedes an average of 1.5 goals per match, and the visitors dominate in the second half (second-half goals: Brann 3.0 vs Rosenborg 0.5), increasing the chance that Brann will maintain or extend their lead. The noticeable discrepancy between xG and actual conversion (Rosenborg xG 1.78 vs Brann 1.68 with Rosenborg’s much poorer conversion) suggests Rosenborg creates chances but fails to convert them, which favors the visitors in the final result. Consequently the strongest signal is the visitors leading at Half-Time and winning Full-Time (2/2), while an alternative is a Half-Time draw followed by a Brann turnaround to win Full-Time (X/2).