Rosenborg vs Tromsø: match statistics

Rosenborg come into this match in significantly better form: they have won 4 of their last 5 games, scoring 19 goals and conceding just 5, while Tromsø have managed only 5 goals over the same period and won just once. At home, the hosts win 60% of their matches, averaging 2.2 goals, with an xG of 1.75 compared to Tromsø’s 1.24 away from home. Rosenborg are more effective at controlling play in their own stadium, recording 56% possession and 5.5 shots on target per match, compared to the visitors’ 4.22. Tromsø’s away defense concedes an average of 1.67 goals and keeps a clean sheet in only 22% of matches, which favors the hosts’ excellent current scoring form. Tromsø sit higher in the table, but their poor run of 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last five matches significantly reduces their chances of taking points from Trondheim.

Rosenborg’s defense provides the strongest signal for BTTS - No: the hosts have kept a clean sheet in 70% of their matches and concede an average of just 0.70 goals at home. Tromsø have failed to score in 33% of their matches, while their last 5 outings produced a BTTS rate of 0%, with an average of only 1.0 goal scored and an xG of 0.97. Rosenborg are in excellent attacking form, scoring 19 goals in their last five matches and averaging 6.2 shots on target, making a home goal highly likely. At the same time, Rosenborg’s season BTTS rate stands at just 20%, well below the league average of 56%, confirming the frequent scenario in which at least one side fails to score. Tromsø have a weak defense, conceding an average of 1.67 goals away from home, so the most realistic outcome is a Rosenborg win to nil rather than both teams scoring.

Rosenborg are in excellent attacking form: they have scored 19 goals in their last five matches, averaging 3.8 per game, with an xG of 1.88. Tromsø conceded an average of 1.2 goals during this period, while their average xG conceded to opponents stands at 1.71, which supports the expectation of at least two home goals. The visitors also regularly feature in matches with a minimum of two goals, as the 1.5-goal line has been surpassed in 78% of their games, compared with 80% for Rosenborg. At the same time, Rosenborg kept a clean sheet in 70% of their matches, while Tromsø scored just 1.0 goal per game over their last five league rounds, so the hosts should be the primary source of goals. The strongest signal is Over 1.5 goals, as the projected total of 3.05 goals provides a clear margin above this line, even with a limited attacking contribution from the visitors.

Rosenborg holds a clear advantage before half-time: they were leading after 45 minutes in 50% of their matches, while Tromsø were trailing at that stage in 33%, and the hosts concede just 0.3 goals per match in the first half. In their last five appearances, Rosenborg had the lead at the break in 80% of matches and averaged 1.2 goals before half-time, conceding only 0.2. The hosts’ advantage should persist after the break, as they have won 60% of their matches over the course of the season, concede just 0.7 goals per game, while Tromsø average 1.67 goals conceded away from home. In addition, Rosenborg create more chances, recording an xG of 1.87 compared with their opponents’ 1.24 and averaging 6.2 shots on target to Tromsø’s 4.22. Therefore, the scenario in which the hosts lead at the break and secure the final victory is the strongest HT/FT selection: 1/1.