Rot-Weiss Essen vs Ingolstadt: match statistics

Rot-Weiss Essen is the favorite: they sit 2nd and in the last 5 matches have 5 wins, scoring 14 goals (2.8 per game) and accruing a maximum 15 points (3.0 points per game). In home metrics Essen averages 2.06 goals scored and 1.19 conceded with 15.13 shots and 5.75 shots on target; their home xG is 1.77, indicating higher-quality created chances than the opponent. Ingolstadt away averages 1.75 goals scored and 1.38 conceded, 11.94 shots (4.75 on target) and an away xG of 1.47; in the last 5 matches they have scored only 6 goals and achieved 1 win (3 points, 0.6 per game). Additionally, Essen have not failed to score at home (percentage of matches without scoring 0%) and have a better home goal differential (+14) than Ingolstadt away (+6), with a higher home win rate (63% vs 31% away wins). Considering form advantage (5 wins vs 1), superior xG (1.77 vs 1.47) and a clearly better goal output this season (65 vs 51) and in the last 5 matches (14 vs 6), I predict a home victory.

Statistically strong signal for BTTS: Rot-Weiss Essen has BTTS in 81% of their matches this season, Ingolstadt 69%, yielding a combined average of 75% which exceeds the league BTTS average of 63%. In the last 5 matches both teams register BTTS at 80%, with Essen averaging 2.8 goals in those five games and Ingolstadt conceding 1.6 goals on average, increasing the likelihood of both teams scoring. Both sides have only 19% clean sheets this season (i.e. they concede at least one goal 81% of the time) and seasonal goals averages are 1.44 (home) and 1.75 (away) with average concessions of 1.38 for both, demonstrating simultaneous ability to score and to concede. Additionally xG shows Essen generates 1.71 xG and concedes 1.61 xG, while Ingolstadt records 1.47 xG and concedes 1.87 xG, so both teams create chances and are exposed to conceding. Based on this I recommend BTTS - Yes with an 80% probability versus 20% for No.

Aggregate expected goals based on xG are 1.79 for Rot-Weiss Essen (attacking xG 1.71 vs conceded xG to Ingolstadt 1.87 → (1.71+1.87)/2=1.79) and 1.54 for Ingolstadt ((1.47+1.61)/2=1.54), totaling 3.33 expected xG. Seasonally both teams have gone Over 1.5 in 81% of matches and Over 2.5 in 69% of fixtures, while in the last 5 games both teams produced Over 2.5 in 80% of cases, with BTTS at 81% for Essen and 69% for Ingolstadt. Essen averages 15.13 shots and 5.25 on target (14 goals in the last 5, i.e. 2.8 avg), Ingolstadt 11.94 and 4.75 (6 goals in the last 5, 1.2 avg) — with conversion rates of ~10% and ~15% respectively, this favors goals from both sides. Given the combined xG of 3.33 and strong seasonal and form indicators for goals, I recommend Over 1.5 as the primary signal (approximately 90% probability); Over 2.5 also has solid support (~72%), whereas Over 3.5 remains moderate (~34%) due to seasonal 25–38% for >3.5.

The most likely scenario is 1/1 (home team leads at the break and wins the match) — I assign it 40%, because Rot‑Weiss Essen led at halftime in 4 of their last 5 matches (80%) and won all 5 most recent fixtures (100%). In their last 5 home appearances the hosts scored an average of 1.8 goals by half-time and conceded 0.4, totaling 11 first-half goals across those 5 matches, which indicates control of the first half. Chance-creation metrics favor them: the hosts’ xG is 1.71 versus 1.47 for Ingolstadt, with an average of 15.13 shots versus 11.94 and 5.25 on target versus 4.75 for the visitors. Although Ingolstadt have a season scoring average of 1.75 and a higher shot conversion rate (15% versus the hosts’ 10%), their form is only 1 win and 4 losses in the last 5 (20% wins), so the probability of a turnaround after halftime is limited.