Rouen vs Caen: match statistics

Rouen demonstrates significantly better home form with a 54% win rate at home and an impressive 54% clean sheet record. The hosts are 3rd in the table and have a positive goal difference (+8) in home matches, while Caen has only an 8% win rate away from home and not a single clean sheet. The visitors' form is alarming – in their last 5 matches, they have averaged only 0.2 points per game, losing 4 out of 5 matches. Rouen averages 1.31 goals scored per home game, conceding only 0.69, which, against Caen's weak defense (conceding 1.67 goals on average away), gives the hosts a clear advantage. Despite Rouen's slightly poorer recent form (1.2 points in the last 5 matches), the class difference between the two teams in a home context is significant enough to favor the hosts, although a draw remains a realistic scenario as well.

Caen boasts an extremely high season-long BTTS rate (92%) with 0% clean sheets, conceding an average of 1.67 goals, which strongly boosts Rouen's chances of scoring. Rouen also creates solid chance quality (xG for 1.44; 12.15 shots, 3.62 on target), while Caen's defense allows a high xG against (1.33). The key risk for BTTS - Yes is Rouen's strong seasonal defense (0.69 conceded, 62% CS), but their last 5 matches show a clear drop in solidity (1.4 conceded; BTTS 80%). Despite poor form, Caen has decent attacking metrics (xG for 1.24; 3.67 on target) and good conversion (14%), increasing the likelihood of scoring at least once against Rouen. Weighing Rouen's seasonal resilience against Caen's highly 'BTTS-prone' profile and the recent trend gives a slight edge to a scenario where both teams score.

Model-based expectation is approximately 2.35 goals in the match (Rouen 1.30, Caen 1.05), which is close to the league average of 2.4, but without strong indicators for a 'very high-scoring' outcome. Rouen has a solid defense in season-long terms (0.69 goals conceded/match and 62% clean sheets), which limits Caen's potential despite their 1.33 goals scored/match. On the other hand, Caen has a very weak defense (1.67 goals conceded/match and 100% of matches conceding a goal), which raises Rouen's chances of scoring, also supported by xG (1.44) and shot volume (12.15/match). At the same time, historical over/under profiles are distinctly 'low' for high lines: Rouen has 92% of matches under 3.5, and Caen 83% under 3.5. The last 5 matches suggest greater variability (high BTTS 80% for both teams and over 2.5: 40%/60%), but this is not yet a signal for frequent exceedance of 3.5 goals. Therefore, the best and strongest option based on the data is under 3.5.

Rouen has a clearly superior performance profile this season (1.38 PPG vs 0.75; 31% win rate vs 8%) and a significantly stronger defense (0.69 goals conceded per match and 62% clean sheets), while Caen records no clean sheets (0% CS) and concedes an average of 1.67 goals. At the same time, Rouen very frequently draws at half-time (62% HT draw), and their average first-half goals is low (0.31), which boosts the scenario of a draw at HT. After the break, Rouen appears more solid in terms of points (18 points in 2nd halves vs Caen's 13), and Caen tends to concede more after the sides change (0.92 goals conceded in the 2nd half), favoring a turnaround in favor of the hosts later in the match. The last 5 matches further strengthen this direction: Caen is on a losing streak (lllld), with a 0% win rate and as many as 80% of cases seeing them trail at the break, while Rouen maintains decent results (1.2 PPG) and can control opponents without conceding many goals. Consequently, the most probable and strongest variant is a draw at half-time, followed by a Rouen victory.