Rudar vs ND Slovan Ljubljana: match statistics

I back the home win — Rudar creates better chances (average xG 1.57 and 5 shots on target per home match) than ND Slovan in away games (xG 1.27 and 2.9 shots on target), giving them a qualitative attacking edge. In the last 5 matches Rudar scored 9 goals (1.8 per match) and conceded 8 (1.6), while Slovan scored 5 goals (1.0) and conceded 10 (2.0), indicating weaker form and poorer defense from the visitors. Rudar also has superior shot conversion: 15% versus 10% for the visitors, higher average possession (53% vs 47%) and a lower average goals conceded at home (1.2 vs 1.5 on Slovan’s travels). ND Slovan has additionally lost 50% of away matches and holds a negative away goal difference of -5, and has conceded 32 goals this season, all factors favoring the home side. Therefore I estimate the probabilities as: home win 58%, draw 24%, away win 18%.

I select the Both Teams To Score (BTTS - Yes) scenario as more likely because in the last 5 matches both teams have BTTS at 60% (Rudar 60%, ND Slovan Ljubljana 60%) and the league season rate is 50% BTTS. Season averages show Rudar scores 0.9 and concedes 1.7 goals per match, while Slovan scores 1.0 and concedes 1.5, indicating vulnerability to conceding from both sides. xG confirms chance creation: Rudar has xG 1.53 versus xG against Slovan 1.69, and Slovan has xG 1.27 versus xG against Rudar 1.69, so both sides generate over 1.2 xG while allowing around 1.7 xG. Clean sheets are rare (20% for each team), and shots on target 3.6 vs 2.9 with conversion 8% vs 10% suggest a few situations will be converted by both teams. Based on this I assign 65% to BTTS - Yes and 35% to No Goal.

Based on xG and actual averages I calculated expected goals: Rudar has xG_for 1.53, ND Slovan 1.27, and xG against both teams is about 1.69; after averaging and adjusting I obtain 1.40 goals for the home side and 1.34 for the visitors (total 2.74). Seasonal metrics confirm a scoring tendency: Rudar has 80% of matches with over 1.5 goals, Slovan 70%, and both teams have 50% of matches over 2.5; in the last 5 matches of both sides over 2.5 occurred in 60% of cases. The Poisson distribution for a mean of 2.74 yields approximately a 76% chance of more than 1.5 goals, about 52% for over 2.5 and about 30% for over 3.5, which aligns with the observed low share of over 3.5 (10–20% seasonally). Additionally 100% of home matches and 90% of away matches are over 0.5, and only 20% of matches end with a clean sheet for either team, which increases the probability of at least two goals. Therefore the strongest signal from the available data is backing Over 1.5 with an estimated probability of around 76%.

Data analysis indicates a home lead at the break: in the last 5 matches Rudar led at half-time in 60% of games, scoring an average of 1.2 goals by half-time versus 0.4 for ND Slovan and conceding only 0.2 goals by half-time while the visitors conceded 1.4. The hosts also have the edge in xG (1.53 vs 1.27), more shots on target per game (3.6 vs 2.9) and a higher average of goals in second halves (1.4 vs 1.2), plus they have collected 13 points in second halves compared to the visitors’ 11, which increases the chance of maintaining the lead. Therefore the most likely scenario is 1/1 (Half-Time/Full-Time), to which I assigned 30% probability; strong alternatives are X/1 (18%) and 1/2 (12%). However, one must account for the risk of an early goal from the visitors — ND Slovan have 2 goals in minutes 0–15 this season versus 0 for the hosts — so variants with a visiting goal by half-time were given low but non-zero probability.